Bitcoin Tops $66K as US Debt Nears $40T Ahead of Aug. 3

U.S. gross federal debt reached $39.489 trillion on July 15, about $511 billion short of $40 trillion. Bitcoin traded near $66,190 as of press time, its highest level since June 17.

The Treasury currently expects to issue $671 billion of privately held net marketable debt between July and September. That projection assumes a Treasury General Account balance of $950 billion at the end of September. The TGA held about $795.98 billion on July 15, roughly $154 billion below the assumption used in the borrowing estimate.

The Treasury will publish a revised third-quarter borrowing estimate on Aug. 3 and release the full quarterly refunding, including auction sizes and the breakdown across bills, notes, bonds, floating-rate notes and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, on Aug. 5. Those publications will set the planned supply of marketable debt for the remainder of the year.

Short-dated bill issuance tends to draw cash from money-market funds. Larger note and bond auctions can be funded with bank deposits or by sales of other assets.

Federal Reserve research published in May found that a one-percentage-point increase in expected U.S. debt relative to GDP adds about 2 to 3 basis points to the 10-year Treasury term premium. On July 16 the two-year Treasury yield was 4.16%, the 10-year 4.57% and the 30-year 5.09%. Reports on July 20 showed the 10-year yield around 4.6% amid oil-related inflation concerns.

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded combined inflows of $500.2 million from July 14 through July 17, reversing a $424.7 million outflow on July 13.

The Federal Reserve reported near-zero overnight reverse repurchase activity on most days and about $3.1 trillion in reserve balances during the first half of 2026. Low use of the overnight facility and the level of reserves affect the pool of cash that typically absorbs short-term Treasury bill issuance.

Market participants are watching the Aug. 3 and Aug. 5 Treasury updates for details on issuance size, the cash target at the Federal Reserve and the mix between short- and long-dated securities, which will determine the supply private investors must absorb.