Unknown Trader’s $2.5B Bitcoin Bull Spread Targets $72,000

An unidentified trader executed a large bull call spread on Deribit’s platform, buying 20,000 July 31 Bitcoin calls at a $70,000 strike and selling 20,000 calls at $72,000. At prevailing prices the two legs carry roughly $2.5 billion in aggregate gross notional. The options expire July 31, two days after the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on July 29.

Under the spread, the long $70,000 calls provide upside above that level while the short $72,000 calls reduce the upfront cost and cap gains above $72,000. The spread reaches its maximum payoff if Bitcoin settles at or above $72,000 on expiry. Aggregate gross notional measures the total dollar value at current prices; premium paid and net exposure can be lower.

Deribit’s options board shows concentrated open interest for the July 31 expiry, with about 27,000 contracts at $70,000 and 21,000 at $72,000. Exchange data and the reported block confirm a matched position of 20,000 long $70,000 calls and 20,000 short $72,000 calls.

Deribit Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Péquignot confirmed the trade and described it as ‘One large block involved buying 20,000 July 31 calls at $70,000 and selling the same number at $72,000.’

Bitcoin traded near $64,289 on July 20, placing the $70,000 strike about 8.9% above spot at that snapshot. The Federal Open Market Committee meets July 28–29, with the policy decision set for 2 p.m. Eastern on July 29 and a press conference at 2:30 p.m. The spread’s expiry on July 31 leaves two trading days for prices to move after the Fed announcement.

Probability indicators that measure whether price will touch a level during July assigned roughly a 14.5% chance to $70,000 and 4.1% to $72,500; those measures record touches at any point in the month rather than settlement on expiry.

US spot Bitcoin ETF flows recorded net inflows of about $197 million during July 6–10 and $75 million during July 13–17, while one session posted a $424 million outflow. On-chain cost-basis estimates identified recent-buyer resistance near $69,000 and conditional support zones in the $52,000–$59,000 range.

Institutional forecasts vary: one firm flagged a potential low near $38,000 on an early-October cycle scenario; Citi cut its 12-month Bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000 and listed a $53,000 bear case; other banks and asset managers offered year-end targets from about $100,000 to $150,000.

Open interest does not disclose who holds the contracts or how they are paired with other positions. The spread will settle against market prices on July 31.