Trump agrees to ethics limits; CLARITY Act odds rise to 32%

President Donald Trump agreed to ethics limits on federal officials’ cryptocurrency holdings, and Senate Republicans released a 635-page revised draft of the CLARITY Act ahead of a cloture vote on H.R. 3633 scheduled for Tuesday. Prediction-market prices rose after the release, pushing the estimated probability of enactment above 32 percent.

Senate Republicans contend the updated draft incorporates 126 substantive changes that Democrats requested after more than a year of negotiations. The most prominent ethics provision requires covered officials — including elected federal officials, judges and their spouses — to divest significant crypto interests or place them in a qualified blind trust. The framework, developed by Sen. Thom Tillis and Sen. Ruben Gallego, assigns state attorneys general a role in enforcing those restrictions.

White House digital-assets adviser Patrick Witt welcomed the revisions in a statement: “At every step of the way during the Clarity Act negotiations, the White House and Senate Republicans have been responsive to Democrats’ stated policy objectives. After more than a year’s worth of negotiations, it’s time to pass this bipartisan bill.”

Senators will vote on cloture on the motion to proceed with H.R. 3633, a procedural step that requires 60 votes to allow the Senate to begin debating the measure. If cloture is invoked, the final draft would be offered as a substitute amendment and the chamber could move to full consideration.

Republicans added a stablecoin “circuit breaker” that would allow the Treasury secretary to intervene if payment stablecoins are found to be causing substantial deposit withdrawals from community banks. The bill narrows provisions in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act: software developers would be protected from certain money-transmission registration requirements and gain a civil safe harbor, while protections that might have extended into criminal cases were reduced.

Provisions worked out with the Senate Agriculture Committee add limits on affiliate trading and address conflicts of interest at digital commodity exchanges, brokers and dealers. The draft preserves state consumer-protection laws and clarifies that developer protections do not override derivatives rules or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s existing authority.

Senate Republicans described the package as a final offer. Sen. Cynthia Lummis and Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott said the revisions respond to more than 100 Democratic requests and urged colleagues to allow debate on the text. Several senators who previously objected to the bill have not publicly committed to backing cloture; their votes will determine whether the chamber reaches the 60-vote threshold required to advance the measure.