SpaceX share release tests Aave’s tokenized collateral plan

About 1.3 billion SpaceX shares worth roughly $194.3 billion will become eligible for sale on Oct. 22. The value is based on SpaceX’s Oct. 20 closing price of $147.89. The release highlights the market and liquidation risks facing Aave’s proposal to accept tokenized SpaceX shares as collateral.

A separate release of about 328.4 million shares, worth approximately $48.6 billion at the same price, is scheduled for Oct. 26. The Oct. 22 tranche represents 28% of a lockup pool of about 4.691 billion shares. It would increase the number of tradable shares by roughly 45% from the current 2.9043 billion.

SpaceX reported about $14.6 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in net income on Oct. 20. The company’s earnings date came earlier than the date used in an assessment published by Aave’s risk adviser, LlamaRisk. The assessment had modeled the larger share release for Nov. 5 to Nov. 9 using third-party estimates. The public governance discussion reviewed on Oct. 20 still contained the November dates.

Aave Labs has proposed accepting SPCXc, a tokenized version of SpaceX shares, as collateral on its V4 Equities Hub on Base. The proposal remains subject to governance procedures, and borrowing against SPCXc on Aave has not been enabled.

LlamaRisk proposed a maximum loan-to-value ratio of 55%, a 6.5% liquidation bonus, a 1,000-basis-point collateral risk premium and USDC as the borrowable asset. The proposal would cap the market at 37,000 SPCXc tokens. At $147.89 per share, the full cap would represent about $5.47 million of collateral and support roughly $3 million in borrowing.

The 55% limit is based on a modeled 41% decline in the share price during a market closure, the liquidation bonus and estimated accrued interest. A borrower depositing $1,000 of SPCXc and borrowing $400 of USDC would start with a 40% loan-to-value ratio. The position would reach the proposed liquidation threshold after a 27.3% decline in the share price.

SpaceX’s annualized volatility since its initial trading period is about 81.4%, compared with roughly 52% for Tesla, according to the assessment. The most recent 30 trading sessions produced lower annualized volatility of about 51.8%. The longer figure includes the company’s initial price-discovery period.

The share release does not require holders to sell, and the amount that will reach the market is unknown. LlamaRisk estimated average daily trading volume at about 91 million shares over the past 30 sessions. Selling 1% of the Oct. 22 tranche would represent about 13.1 million shares worth roughly $1.94 billion, or 14% of average daily volume. Selling 5% would equal about 72% of average daily volume, while selling 10% would exceed one day’s average volume.

SpaceX rose 6.1% on its Aug. 6 release date and fell by about 4% around the Aug. 20 and Sept. 9 events. Its shares closed Oct. 20 down 5.5% from Oct. 13 and about 14% below the $171.92 close on Oct. 6. Elon Musk’s personal holdings are covered by a separate lockup that runs until June 2027.

Onchain liquidity for SPCXc is limited. LlamaRisk counted 13,214 tokens outstanding on Oct. 13, worth about $2 million at the Oct. 20 share price. More than 99% of trading took place in the Aerodrome SPCXc/USDC pool, which held about $1.04 million in assets, including approximately $452,000 of USDC. Its estimated depth for a 2% price move was about $370,000.

LlamaRisk expects larger liquidations to depend on issuer redemptions or perpetual-futures hedges. Token redemptions may have eligibility restrictions. Aave’s Chainlink pricing operates 24 hours a day, five days a week, while Nasdaq trades during set sessions.

A 30% fall from $147.89 to about $103.52 would make a $400 loan against $1,000 of collateral eligible for liquidation under the proposed factor. A decline of about 41% would bring the price to roughly $87.25 during a market closure.