SpaceX Rally Reverses as $615M in Crypto Bets Persist

SpaceX’s post‑IPO rally has reversed, with shares down about 40% from their early trading peak. The stock fell to a post‑listing low near $132.28 before recovering to close around $135.27, slipping below the $135 offering price for the first time. During its first week of trading the stock reached $225.64; the company’s market value moved from more than $2.8 trillion at the peak to roughly $1.8 trillion.

The decline reduced the value of the founder’s stake. A roughly 42% holding fell in value from about $1.2 trillion at the peak to roughly $760 billion. Broader measures of his wealth moved from about $1.32 trillion in June to roughly $856 billion.

Retail investors received about 20% of the IPO allocation. Investors who bought at the $150 opening price face roughly a 10% unrealized loss, and buyers who purchased near the June high are down about 40%. Short sellers accumulated an estimated $8.7 billion in paper profits as the price slid below the offering level.

Crypto derivatives tied to the stock remain active. Perpetual futures linked to SpaceX held about $615 million in open interest, down from a peak near $860 million in late June. Trading volume in those contracts has fallen from more than $10 billion at the height of the rally to about $1.6 billion over the last 24 hours. These perpetual contracts track the Nasdaq‑listed shares synthetically, trade around the clock and commonly permit leverage, allowing positions larger than the collateral posted.

Tokenized versions of SpaceX shares are circulating on blockchains. One tokenized product tracking the company held nearly $25 million in assets across more than 7,800 holders and recorded roughly $313 million in transfer volume over the past month. The tokenized supply is small compared with SpaceX’s market value, but transfer activity shows trading outside traditional market hours.

A large block of previously restricted shares will become eligible to trade soon. Employees and some early investors are set to be able to sell 911.5 million shares on the second trading day after the company reports its first quarterly results as a public company, expected in early August. At recent prices, that block would be worth about $123 billion, compared with roughly $86 billion of stock currently available for trading on the Nasdaq. An additional 455.8 million shares could be released earlier if the stock closes above $175.50 in at least five of the ten trading sessions before the earnings report.

Further restrictions will lapse in the months ahead. By Dec. 8 as much as 40% of the company could be eligible for public trading; the remaining shares, including the founder’s stake, are expected to remain restricted until mid‑2027.

A former fund manager estimates an intrinsic value near $30 per share and attributes part of the June price surge to the small initial float combined with fast index inclusion. Another investor expects selling pressure as employees and early backers diversify and projects the stock could decline toward $100 before recovering over time. Most tracked analysts, however, maintain buy recommendations, citing business lines such as Starlink and commercial launch operations.

Open leveraged positions could face forced liquidations if the stock moves sharply after the earnings release or as the available float expands. Market participants will monitor trading volume, open interest and the pace of selling once restriction periods end to assess whether price changes reflect business data or shifts in supply and demand.