Solana withdrawals coincide with 11% rebound, $111 target

Solana recorded net withdrawals of 543,961 SOL from exchange addresses over five trading sessions through May 6, accompanying an 11% price rebound and the formation of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. A decisive close above the pattern neckline at $96.95 would project roughly 14.45% upside to about $111.00.

SOL has moved back toward the $90 area. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the right-shoulder low sits at $90.03. The inverse head-and-shoulders began forming in late March, with the right shoulder completing in late April. The current rally has retraced about 11% from the recent floor.

Short-term momentum shows the 20-day exponential moving average closing on the 50-day EMA, which would create a bullish crossover if completed. Both the 20- and 50-day EMAs remain below the 100-day EMA, which is near $93.91 and currently caps the move.

On-chain exchange flow flipped from inflows to outflows in late April and early May. Between April 22 and May 1, single-day inflows reached almost 1.4 million SOL onto exchanges. From April 30 through May 6, five consecutive sessions recorded net outflows, totaling 543,961 SOL on the latest reading.

On-chain cost-basis distribution shows about 5.41 million SOL concentrated between approximately $91.70 and $92.43. That concentration sits above the current price and overlaps the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $92.41.

Price levels that define the next moves are clear. Reclaiming $92.41 would put SOL into the concentrated cost-basis band and then face the 100-day EMA near $93.91 before testing the $96.95 neckline. A clean close above $96.95 would activate the measured move toward roughly $111.00.

To the downside, failure to hold above $90.03 would expose $86.69 and $84.63. A drop below the right-shoulder low at $81.29 would invalidate the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.