Polymarket Odds Rise to 73% Ahead of May 14 Clarity Act Markup

Polymarket traders now assign a 73% probability that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act will become law in 2026, up from 46% in early May. The change came ahead of a Senate Banking Committee markup scheduled for May 14 in the Dirksen Senate Office Building in Washington.

The committee will consider the bill that cleared the House last July. A reporter confirmed that draft text was circulated to select industry members before the session. The markup allows senators to offer amendments and vote on whether to advance a version of the bill to the full Senate, part of the legislative path toward a White House signing target of July 4.

Negotiations continue over several provisions. Banking trade groups are seeking changes to a yield compromise negotiated by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks; the proposed tweaks would further restrict stablecoin issuers from offering rewards or interest to holders. Senate staff and industry representatives are discussing those revisions as they try to build support for the measure.

Supporters and industry participants say the CLARITY Act would replace uncertain regulatory guidance with clearer standards across digital-asset markets. Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, wrote that the bill “can catalyze the next phase of innovation and capital formation in digital assets by replacing uncertainty with structure, providing developers, businesses, and investors with a long-awaited asset and regulatory legal framework.”

Polymarket’s odds rose from 46% to 73% in the days before the markup, reflecting traders’ adjustments to reported negotiations and the upcoming session. If the committee approves a version of the bill, the Senate would consider it next and legislators could reconcile any differences with the House-passed text. Final language on stablecoin rules, custody standards and the treatment of various digital assets will shape how firms respond and how the bill progresses through Congress.