Polymarket: 67% Chance Tech Layoffs Rise in 2026

Polymarket traders have priced a 67% probability that U.S. tech sector layoffs in 2026 will exceed 2025 totals after the platform highlighted reports of very low employee morale at Meta just before listing a contract on the topic. The contract asks whether tech layoffs will be “Up or Down in 2026?” and currently shows the “Up” outcome at 67%.

The prediction market’s contract will resolve against Bureau of Labor Statistics data for the U.S. “Information” sector by June 2027. Trading on the contract closes on February 28, 2027, leaving time for the market to react to new announcements through that date. Traders point to announced or reported 2026 reductions at LinkedIn, Cisco, Cloudflare, Coinbase and Oracle when pricing the market.

Meta plans to cut about 8,000 roles on May 20, roughly 10% of its global workforce, and to freeze about 6,000 open positions. Meta’s chief people officer, Janelle Gale, described the actions as efforts to operate the company more efficiently as spending increases on AI infrastructure.

The company reported first-quarter revenue of $56.3 billion, up 33% year-over-year. Shares fell about 10% after management raised 2026 capital expenditure guidance to a range of $125 billion to $145 billion.

Employees on internal forums have described workplace culture as “dead and depressing” and raised concerns about performance reviews they say are tied to AI output. Staff distributed flyers on May 12 opposing a Model Capability Initiative tool that logs keystrokes, clicks and screen activity to help train AI agents. An Instagram staffer wrote, “Everyone is unhappy; the only people who are not unhappy are, literally, executives.”

Polymarket posted a morale headline minutes before promoting the contract, linking internal company developments to its broader question about industry layoffs. The market’s current price reflects participant expectations based on public announcements and reports; prices can change if companies revise hiring plans, reverse freezes or announce different headcount strategies.