New MSCI rules could weaken Strategy’s Bitcoin-buying engine

MSCI approved new rules that could remove Strategy from its global investable-market indexes after the Nov. 30 market close. The change could reduce the Bitcoin treasury company’s access to index-linked investment and affect its ability to fund future Bitcoin purchases.

The global index provider announced the methodology change on Oct. 15. MSCI will publish the final list of affected companies on Nov. 11, giving index-tracking funds time to adjust their holdings before the rules take effect.

The rules target companies classified as non-operating businesses. MSCI will first assess whether a company has substantial operating assets. Companies that fail that screen will face five financial-ratio tests. Firms flagged on at least four tests will be ineligible. Existing index constituents must fail the eligibility screen in both of their two most recent annual reporting periods before removal, although MSCI may also review the latest interim filing.

MSCI identified Strategy, Japan’s Metaplanet and uranium investment company Yellow Cake as potential deletions in an August simulation based on May financial data. Ethereum treasury company SharpLink was placed on a proposed watchlist. The new framework replaces interim restrictions aimed at companies whose digital assets accounted for at least 50% of total assets.

In a September submission to MSCI, Strategy argued that excluding Bitcoin treasury companies would compromise MSCI’s neutrality and create an arbitrary distinction between operating companies and investment vehicles.

Strategy’s shares are about 68.7% below their peak, based on Yahoo Finance closing prices. The stock fell more than 80% below its running high earlier in 2026 and previously reached a drawdown of 89.3%.

The scale of any index-related selling remains uncertain. Bitcoin analyst Adrian Morris calculated that Strategy generated about $565.25 billion in dollar trading volume this year, averaging $2.91 billion per day and $13.79 billion per week. Trading volume reached $15.29 billion in the week ended Oct. 9.

Morris calculated that a $2.8 billion sale estimated by JPMorgan would equal about 96% of one average trading day, 18.3% of the previous week’s volume and 0.5% of year-to-date turnover.

Strategy estimated in its September submission that funds tracking MSCI indexes held about 13 million MSTR shares, equal to 3.1% of the company’s basic shares outstanding. The company estimated that position represented about 60% of its average daily share trading volume during the previous 30 days.

Nic Puckrin, chief executive of Coin Bureau, identified a longer-term financing risk if sustained selling reduces Strategy’s share price. A lower share price could narrow the premium at which MSTR trades compared with the value of the company’s Bitcoin holdings. Strategy has used that premium to issue common stock and raise funds for additional Bitcoin purchases.

If the premium declines, common-stock offerings could become less attractive, potentially increasing the company’s reliance on preferred securities, debt or existing cash. Strategy reported acquiring 250 Bitcoin for $21.5 million in the week ended Oct. 11, funded mainly by $21 million raised through common-stock sales. It spent $192.4 million repurchasing its STRC preferred stock during the same period.

The company reported holding 848,250 Bitcoin acquired for about $64 billion, along with $4.88 billion in dollar reserves and another $640.5 million available for broader treasury purposes.