Kalshi to End Volume Program as Perpetual Trades Draw Scrutiny

Kalshi notified the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that its Volume Incentive Program will terminate no earlier than Oct. 13, accelerating a previously scheduled Oct. 1, 2027 end. The exchange filed a new Deposit and Trading Reward Incentive Program with the CFTC days earlier, with the regulator listing Sept. 28 as the earliest effective date for the filings.

The filings do not link the earlier termination to ongoing regulatory attention. Kalshi’s submission to the regulator states the company is not under investigation and rejects allegations of wash trading, attributing repeated transactions to market makers posting fixed-size quotes that were repeatedly executed by other participants.

Regulators and researchers have examined unusual activity in Kalshi’s perpetual futures books after patterns of repetitive trades clustered around fixed dollar amounts, including about $5,500 in Ethereum perpetuals. The CFTC has reviewed that trading activity as part of its market oversight.

Kalshi launched the Volume Incentive Program to boost liquidity on its central limit order book. Under that program the exchange designated eligible markets and set fixed reward pools. Traders received a share of rewards based on their portion of eligible volume. Event-contract payouts were capped at half a cent per contract per participant. Perpetual futures were eligible under the old program and were exempt from the usual 3-cent to 97-cent qualifying price range. The program’s terms allowed Kalshi to end it at its discretion.

The new Deposit and Trading Reward Incentive Program replaces a fixed-pool approach with time-limited, targeted promotions. Promotions may run from three to 90 days and can be tied to deposit amounts, trading activity, or both. Kalshi can target promotions by account age, funding status, prior trading behavior, inactivity, geography, or past participation in particular contract categories. Individual promotions can pay up to $2,500 per participant, while total rewards are capped at $5,000 per person over the program’s planned two-year life. Incentives may be structured as percentage matches or fixed-value payments and can apply across categories including crypto, sports, economics, financials, politics, weather and entertainment.

The filing includes measures to exclude transactions under inquiry for potential self-matching, wash trading, prearranged trading or other prohibited practices from promotional rewards. Kalshi stated its surveillance staff will apply heightened monitoring to participants who receive incentives and can terminate eligibility or pursue disciplinary action when appropriate.

Trading on Kalshi has risen sharply. Market-tracking data show a one-day record of $3.24 billion on Sept. 27 and weekly volume of $15.66 billion for the seven days through that date. Tracked prediction-market volume for the exchange rose to about 80 percent during that period.

Kalshi is in advanced talks to raise roughly $1 billion at an approximate $40 billion valuation and has held discussions about expanding beyond prediction markets and a possible initial public offering.

The new filing and the accelerated end date change how Kalshi can allocate incentives. The filings do not explain why the company moved the termination date forward, and the two incentive programs can overlap until the older program ends.