Kalshi CEO: Polymarket Not Main Rival; Names Three Threats

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour identified derivatives giant CME Group, brokerage Robinhood and sportsbook operators as the competitors he watches most, and said he does not view Polymarket as his primary rival.

Mansour measures competition by scale and regulatory reach rather than direct head-to-head platform comparisons. Kalshi currently leads the regulated U.S. prediction-market sector, holding most regulated business and a large share of industry open interest.

Over the past 30 days, trading volumes were roughly $9.8 billion on Kalshi and about $9.9 billion on Polymarket. Kalshi holds about $1 billion of approximately $1.6 billion in industry open interest and lists nearly all active regulated markets.

Mansour pointed to CME Group’s entry into event contracts via a FanDuel-linked product that trades sports and economic outcomes. He also highlighted Robinhood’s work in prediction markets: the brokerage built a prediction markets hub on Kalshi’s exchange in 2025 and routes some contracts to an alternate venue run with Susquehanna.

Other firms that have launched or expanded prediction-market offerings include DraftKings, Novig and Coinbase, increasing the number of participants beyond Kalshi and Polymarket.

Polymarket operates an offshore platform that draws significant U.S. user activity via virtual private networks. Major events drove large spikes on both platforms during the 2026 World Cup, when a single market on the tournament winner drew tens of millions of dollars in daily bets on occasion.

Regulation is a central issue for Kalshi. Mansour has urged that offshore platforms be subject to the same oversight as U.S. exchanges, citing recent insider-trading indictments tied to prediction markets. Federal prosecutors charged an Army soldier who allegedly turned about $33,000 into more than $400,000 by betting on the timing of an overseas operation, and a tech employee accused of making roughly $1.2 million on a market tied to a most-searched-person result.

Federal regulators published a 267-page proposed rule on June 10 that would allow many sports contracts while barring in-game proposition bets, wagers on officiating and bets on pre-collegiate sports. The proposal includes a 45-day public comment period.

“When I think about competition, I don’t think about Polymarket, honestly, as much as some of the others,” Mansour said.

Kalshi currently controls the compliant U.S. market while Polymarket and a widening set of rivals expand reach on both regulated and offshore rails. Pending rulemaking and the expansion plans of trading and sportsbook operators remain ongoing developments for the sector.