JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Near $386,000 in Bullish 10-Year Case

JPMorgan Asset Management projects that Bitcoin could reach about $385,500 within 10 years in its bullish scenario. Its base case places the price near $215,300, while the bearish scenario puts it at roughly $25,300.

The projections appeared in the firm’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, released Oct. 19. The analysis uses a Bitcoin reference price of about $83,000 and presents three possible outcomes instead of one forecast.

The base case assumes annualized returns of 10% over the decade. The bullish scenario assumes annualized returns of 16.6%, while the bearish scenario assumes annual losses of 11.2%.

Bitcoin’s projected 10% annual return is higher than JPMorgan Asset Management’s assumptions for U.S. large-cap stocks and gold, at 7.5% and 5.5%, respectively. The firm projects annualized Bitcoin volatility of 55%, compared with 18% for U.S. equities.

The valuation model gives 65% of its weighting to Bitcoin’s supply growth relative to the U.S. dollar and global money supply. Another 30% reflects the possibility that investors will move funds from gold into Bitcoin. Network adoption accounts for the remaining 5% and produces a negative 3.2% annualized return in the base case.

The monetary-supply and gold-allocation models each produce annualized returns of about 10.7% in the base case. The firm assumes Bitcoin will receive little direct benefit from tokenized assets built on other blockchains.

JPMorgan Asset Management describes Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a possible hedge against monetary easing. Its analysis finds that Bitcoin’s price often responds to global liquidity conditions in a way similar to other high-risk investments.

The firm considers it premature to use the projections for long-term portfolio construction. Its analysis puts Bitcoin’s historical correlation with U.S. large-cap stocks at 0.33 and with gold at 0.10, while noting that both relationships have been unstable.

Portfolio manager Sheena Shah and digital asset strategist Dennis Cristallo identified lower volatility, more consistent correlations, deeper liquidity and improved price discovery as conditions that could support wider strategic use of Bitcoin.

The report is the first long-term Bitcoin scenario analysis in JPMorgan Asset Management’s 31-year annual outlook history. It follows years of criticism from JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, who has called Bitcoin a fraud and cited speculation, criminal activity and regulatory risks.

At the bank’s May 2025 investor day, Dimon confirmed that JPMorgan would allow clients to buy Bitcoin and display those holdings on their account statements. The bank initially declined to provide custody services. “I am not a fan of it,” Dimon said, while defending clients’ freedom to invest in the cryptocurrency.