IBM jumps after recycled Trump clip; resistance $296–$319

IBM shares rose nearly 13% on Friday to about $298 and traded above $300 on Monday after a December video of President Trump praising IBM recirculated over the weekend. The stock had already been rising before the clip resurfaced, having fallen to a May 13 low near $212 and climbing about 41% from that trough.

Barclays initiated coverage on June 1 with an Overweight rating and a $350 target. Wedbush reiterated a Buy rating with a $320 target on May 29. Market participants described the resurfaced footage as a short-term spark rather than the primary driver of the recent advance.

Trading volume increased since mid-May, with Friday’s session printing about 28.48 million shares as the price moved higher. The increase in volume accompanied the rapid price rise.

Institutional-flow indicators diverged from the price trend. The Chaikin Money Flow, which measures buying and selling pressure from larger investors, formed lower peaks while the stock rose. The reading sits near 0.15 and needs to clear roughly 0.25 to reflect renewed institutional buying pressure.

Options activity showed changes consistent with short-position closures. The put-call volume ratio fell from about 0.60 on May 20 to roughly 0.23, and the open interest ratio eased from about 0.84 to 0.66. Those shifts indicate more put selling and fewer new bearish bets than before the rally.

Technically, the stock tested immediate resistance at $296. A clean daily close above $296 would open a path toward the next resistance at $319. IBM’s price was rejected near $319 on Nov. 12 and Jan. 29; a close above that level would be required to support a run toward Barclays’ $350 target. On the downside, supports cited by traders include $278, $266 and $253.

On a fundamental basis, IBM reported decelerating growth at Red Hat, the open-source software unit it acquired in 2019 for about $34 billion. As of March 31, IBM carried roughly $66 billion in debt. Valuation comparisons show the stock trading near levels some models place above fair value relative to analyst targets.

Despite a roughly 28% gain over the prior month, the stock remained close to flat for the year, reflecting that the recent rise largely retraced earlier declines. Investors and analysts will monitor whether institutional buying confirms the rally and whether price can hold clean closes above the noted resistance levels; options flows and money-flow indicators are being watched for signs of new long positions rather than a squeeze-driven unwind.