Failed $81,000 Breakout Puts $75,000 Back in Play for Bitcoin

Bitcoin failed to keep an intraday breakout above $81,000 on Aug. 28 and traded near $78,000 heading into the weekend, sitting between $77,000 support and $80,000 resistance. The intraday rejection left $75,000 in view if $77,000 does not hold.

At the Jackson Hole symposium, Kevin Warsh warned: “the Fed still had work to do if inflation failed to return toward its target.” After his remarks, market odds for a September rate increase rose to about 55% from roughly 40% before the speech. The rise in rate-hike odds coincided with Bitcoin falling back below $80,000 by the close on Aug. 28.

About 81,700 Bitcoin options with a notional value near $6.44 billion expired on Deribit on Friday at 08:00 UTC, removing a cluster of strike exposure that had been active through the week. The calls-to-puts ratio stood at about 0.83. The largest option interest was concentrated around $75,000 and $80,000, the same strikes framing the weekend’s downside and upside cases.

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nine consecutive days of net inflows through Aug. 27 totaling roughly $3 billion. ETF creation and redemption activity follows U.S. equity market hours, so that source of spot demand paused over the weekend. The CME Group shifted its cryptocurrency futures market to near-continuous trading in late May, allowing regulated futures to trade on Saturday and Sunday and respond before ETF desks reopen on Monday.

Traders identified key price levels. A sustained reclaim of $80,000 would put the Aug. 28 intraday high near $81,300 and the $82,000 to $83,000 zone back in range. A sustained drop below $77,000 with price acceptance would target $75,000 to $75,500. A further break below $75,000 would open $72,000 to $73,000. The $69,000 to $70,000 band is noted as a longer-term support region that would likely require a larger liquidation event or an additional macro shock to reach over a short period.

Citi reduced its 12-month Bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000 in July and outlined a recession-driven downside scenario near $53,000. Bernstein has published a longer-term projection of about $150,000 by mid-2027 and a higher-range scenario up to $500,000. With the options expiry cleared and futures trading active through the weekend, the next directional move could occur before U.S. ETF desks resume trading on Monday.