Citi Raises 12-Month Bitcoin Forecast to $113,000

Citi raised its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to $113,000 from $82,000 on Oct. 1. The bank cited stronger market activity, supportive macroeconomic conditions and renewed inflows into exchange-traded funds. It also projected about $5 billion in crypto inflows over the following year as advisers and brokerages increase digital-asset allocations.

The target would represent a gain of about 36% from Bitcoin’s Oct. 7 reference price of $83,085. It would remain about 10.5% below the cryptocurrency’s previous record of $126,198.07.

Using a circulating supply of 20.09 million Bitcoin, the target implies a market capitalization of about $2.27 trillion. That is roughly $601 billion above the valuation at the Oct. 7 reference price. The calculation excludes future coin issuance. Market capitalization reflects the value of all circulating coins at the latest price and does not equal the cash required to move the price higher.

Glassnode’s Oct. 7 report estimated that Bitcoin spot exchanges and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had combined average daily trading volume of about $6.8 billion during the previous seven days. That was lower than the volume recorded on 90% of trading days since January 2024.

The analytics firm estimated that about $4.9 billion entered the Bitcoin market during the 30 days through Oct. 5 through ETF flows, stablecoin growth and corporate treasury purchases. Over the same period, Bitcoin’s realized capitalization rose by about $12.8 billion. Realized capitalization values coins at the prices when they last moved, measuring changes in the aggregate cost basis of holdings rather than quoted market value.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $118.8 million on Oct. 6 and net outflows of $484.9 million on Oct. 7. The figures reflect different daily results rather than a consistent flow pattern.

Citi’s January 2025 outlook identified a historical association between ETF inflows and Bitcoin returns. It estimated that each $1 billion of ETF inflows was associated with a 4.7% Bitcoin return and that ETF flows explained about 46% of the variation in price action in that analysis. The public summary did not disclose the full regression model or the frequency of its observations.

Applying that earlier relationship as a simple calculation, $5 billion in ETF inflows would correspond to about 23.5% upside from the Oct. 7 reference price, or a price near $102,600. The calculation does not reproduce Citi’s current forecast. Selling by existing holders, market conditions and the type of inflow can affect the impact of new buying.

Glassnode measured Bitcoin’s one-year annualized realized volatility at 43.97% on Oct. 6. The logarithmic return required to reach $113,000 was about 30.8%, equal to roughly 0.70 times that volatility measure.

The broad U.S. dollar index rose about 0.34% from Sept. 30 to Oct. 2. The 10-year Treasury yield increased seven basis points, from 5.24% on Oct. 1 to 5.31% on Oct. 5. DefiLlama data showed total stablecoin capitalization of about $308 billion on Oct. 7, up roughly 1% over 30 days. Stablecoins have several uses, so their effect on Bitcoin depends on how holders deploy them.