China posts $125.6bn June trade surplus as growth slows

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported a $125.6 billion trade surplus in June after exports rose 20.8% year on year and imports rose 29.4%.

The bureau said second‑quarter GDP grew 4.3% year on year, down from 5.0% in the first quarter and below economists’ expectations. Quarter‑on‑quarter growth was 0.9%.

Official first‑half data showed total trade reached 25.47 trillion yuan, up 16.9%, and exports for the period rose 13.4%. Mechanical and electrical exports increased 20.1% and accounted for 63.5% of goods trade. Private firms made up 57% of total trade, and trade with Belt and Road partners expanded 14.8%.

Measures of domestic demand weakened in the first half. Fixed‑asset investment fell 5.7%, private investment declined 8.5%, and investment in real‑estate development dropped 18.0%. Infrastructure investment was down 2.4% and manufacturing investment decreased 1.2%. Retail sales rose 1.3% for the period. Newly built commercial floor space sold fell 11.6% and the value of newly built commercial property sales declined 13.6%.

Investment in high‑tech industries rose 4.6%, with gains in aerospace vehicle and equipment manufacturing, computer and office device manufacturing, and information services.

Premier Li Qiang called for “stronger counter‑cyclical adjustment,” while officials have not specified which policy tools they will use.

Analysts said greater reliance on export demand increases exposure to tariffs, anti‑subsidy investigations and political resistance in importing countries. They also noted that weak property sales and lower land‑sale revenues can reduce household wealth and limit local government finances.

Markets are watching policy signals ahead of the late‑July Politburo meeting for indications on near‑term support measures.