BLS revises July payrolls to 10,000-job decline

The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised July payrolls from a 21,000 gain to a 10,000 loss and reduced combined July and August payroll gains by 60,000 in a report released Oct. 2. September payroll growth was reported at 29,000. The revisions reflect updated payroll survey data and adjust earlier monthly estimates rather than indicating new job losses in September.

July’s estimate moved from a modest increase to a decline; August’s payroll additions were revised down from 162,000 to 133,000. Average hourly earnings for private nonfarm payrolls rose 0.1% in September and 3.0% year over year, compared with previously reported August figures of a 0.3% monthly gain and 3.1% annually.

The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by a quarter point on Sept. 16 to a 3.75%–4.00% target range. In its Sept. 16 statement, the Fed noted that “job gains had kept pace with the workforce and inflation remained elevated.” The personal consumption expenditures price index for August ran at 3.4% annually, with core PCE at 3.0%.

The separate household survey showed employment rising an estimated 406,000 in September, the labor force expanding by 485,000, the participation rate increasing from 61.6% to 61.8%, and the unemployment rate edging from 4.1% to 4.2%. Payroll counts measure jobs on employer payrolls; the household survey counts people and includes some workers excluded from payroll measures.

September changes in both surveys fell below the BLS’s approximate significance thresholds — about 122,000 for payrolls and 650,000 for the household series — meaning the monthly readings did not meet the agency’s benchmarks for statistically decisive moves. The next employment report is scheduled for Nov. 6. A February 2023 New York Fed study found Bitcoin showed little intraday response to monetary and macroeconomic surprises.