Bitcoin hits 8 VanEck capitulation signals; $551.8M puts

VanEck’s ChainCheck analysis shows eight of the 12 measures it tracks are currently flagging capitulation. All 12 indicators reached extreme levels at some point over the past three months. Bitcoin has traded near $65,000 after falling from an October 2025 peak above $126,000 and remaining above a June low around $58,500. The decline is entering its 10th month.

Excluding a short 2011 drop, the last three major Bitcoin drawdowns averaged about 12.7 months to reach their troughs, placing October–November inside that historical window. VanEck warned the capitulation signals do not provide precise timing. In past episodes when eight to 12 indicators triggered, Bitcoin’s average gain was 12.8% over the following 90 days versus a broader 15.2% baseline. Over 180 days the average return was 32% versus a 36.3% baseline. Outperformance showed up at the one-year mark, based on a limited number of distinct episodes.

Options market activity shows higher demand for downside insurance even as spot volatility stays low. Thirty-day realized volatility fell to an annualized 27.2%, well below Bitcoin’s long-term average near 80%, reflecting a tight trading range during the measurement period. Premiums paid for Bitcoin puts rose 42% month over month to $551.8 million, while call premiums declined 10% to $237.6 million. The put-to-call premium ratio reached 2.30, a level higher than 99% of readings since 2021 and more than three times the historical average of about 0.71. Total options premiums over 30 days increased 21% to $789.3 million.

Open-interest figures show a different pattern. Call open interest climbed 5% to $19.1 billion and put open interest fell 11.5% to $10.8 billion, pushing the put-to-call open-interest ratio down to 0.57 from 0.67. VanEck noted that expiring short-dated puts combined with higher costs for new protection could leave fewer put contracts outstanding even as spending on puts rose. One-month call implied volatility dropped to about 32.7%, while put implied volatility remained near 40%.

Macro and market flow factors have been active alongside these signals. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 5.3%, its highest level since 2007. Geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Iran continued into a fifth month. A public company that holds Bitcoin sold some this year to help fund dividends on its preferred stock. CoinGlass data show Bitcoin is up nearly 3% so far this month while 30-day spot volume fell about 27%, approaching levels seen in the 2023 bear market.

Long-term holder behavior and institutional flows also changed. Coins held for more than one year declined by roughly 356,000 BTC over the prior 30 days, and the share of supply held by those investors slipped below 60%. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products recorded more than $1 billion in net inflows over the past 30 days, reversing roughly $2.4 billion of outflows from the prior month.

VanEck’s data present the current state of indicators, options activity, liquidity and flows without offering a timetable for price direction.