Bitcoin Tops $81,000 as ETF Inflows Rise, Options Remain Cautious

Bitcoin climbed above $81,000 on Thursday after U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $730.9 million in inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for about $454 million, with funds from Fidelity, Grayscale and others making up the remainder. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller commented he could support keeping interest rates unchanged this month if August inflation cools, and Treasury yields fell after his remarks.

U.S. Bitcoin funds pulled in roughly $3.5 billion in August, the largest monthly inflow since September 2025. Daily Bitcoin spot volume has risen about three to four times from early-August lows, led by Binance with stronger activity also at Coinbase and MEXC.

On-chain and exchange data indicate the initial rally included forced liquidations and closed short positions, with relatively few new long positions opened. Thursday’s ETF flows and higher spot turnover coincided with increased deposit activity, suggesting fresh capital has begun to enter the market.

Hourly large-holder inflows repeatedly exceeded 2,000 BTC. The average deposit size on Binance rose from roughly 20–30 BTC to over 50 BTC, with peaks near 75 BTC. Seven-day cumulative altcoin deposit transactions increased from about 15,000–20,000 to around 45,000.

Derivatives markets showed concentrated positioning near current prices. About 29,600 Bitcoin options worth $2.39 billion expired Friday, with a put-call ratio of 0.65 and a maximum pain level near $73,000. That expiry represented roughly 7% of outstanding options.

Greeks.live reported that call gamma exposure, which had been spread across strikes, converged as traders sold calls above $80,000. Put gamma exposure remained minimal.

Bitcoin reached $81,400 on Aug. 28 before trading in a roughly $76,000–$81,000 range. CryptoQuant’s 365-day moving average sits near $82,300. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score stood at 70 after briefly reaching 80 during the August rally, the highest reading since October 2025.

Volatility measures showed realized moves outpacing option-implied expectations. Monthly realized volatility rose to about 40% while monthly implied volatility fell to roughly 36%. The 15-day volatility risk premium dropped to negative 16% before recovering to about negative 6%.

Open interest measured in dollars is approaching $48 billion, while BTC-denominated open interest has declined, according to Alphractal. Part of the rise in dollar-denominated open interest reflects higher Bitcoin prices rather than a proportional increase in leverage.

Further gains would depend on whether buying sustains above $80,000 and moves through the roughly $82,300 long-term threshold. Incoming inflation data could change market-implied expectations for interest rates and affect market flows.