Bitcoin-to-gold volatility gap at six-year low

The 90-day volatility ratio of Bitcoin to gold narrowed to about 1.43 after Bitcoin’s 90-day volatility measured 36.2% and gold’s rose to 25.3%, the smallest gap in six years. Their 90-day returns correlation climbed to roughly 0.55, the highest level since 2020.

Analyst Adam Livingston said the compression in the volatility gap stems largely from a surge in gold’s volatility rather than an outsized decline in Bitcoin’s. Bitcoin’s 90-day volatility sits near the 10th percentile of its history, while gold’s sits around the 93rd percentile. Livingston noted that every session in the past six years in which gold’s 90-day volatility exceeded 25% has occurred in 2026.

The volatility ratio has remained below two for 177 consecutive sessions, compared with just 82 such days from 2020 through 2025. Bitcoin’s average volatility has risen to about 44% this year from 41%, while gold’s average moved to roughly 30% from 18%.

Market moves in late August and early September highlighted different market responses to the same macro shock. Gold fell from a late-August peak near $4,696 on Aug. 25 to about $4,342 on Sept. 1 as long-term Treasury yields rose and traders repriced Federal Reserve policy. Over the same stretch, Bitcoin held around $77,000 and later rebounded above $80,000.

Long-term Treasury yields surged in August and the Treasury expanded purchases of longer-dated securities. In the week after those actions, Bitcoin rose about 22.4% while gold advanced roughly 5% as equities fell. Data from investment firms show Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 declined to about 33% from above 60% earlier in the year, while its correlation with gold increased from near zero to more than 50%.

Market structure in crypto also affected Bitcoin’s relative resilience. Recent liquidations removed excess leverage, perpetual funding rates stayed moderate and spot Bitcoin ETF demand provided support. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $101.2 million of inflows on Sept. 2 after $236.5 million of outflows the previous day, and they have attracted more than $3 billion over the past 30 days. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, attributed Bitcoin’s steady performance in part to cleaner positioning after leverage was reduced and to steadier ETF demand.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, commented on gold’s sensitivity to macro factors: “For now, gold’s inverse correlation with oil prices and bond yields remains a key focus, sidelining other potentially supportive drivers.” Higher oil prices can push inflation expectations and bond yields higher, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Gold remains sensitive to real yields, the dollar and energy-driven inflation expectations. Bitcoin’s price is influenced by leverage, funding dynamics and ETF flows as well as the same fiscal and interest-rate forces affecting gold.