Bitcoin May Shift From Four-Year Cycle to 6-8-Year Rhythm
Analyst Willy Woo argued Bitcoin may move from a four-year halving cycle to a six-to-eight-year rhythm as institutional capital and macro liquidity grow.
On Sept. 3, analyst Willy Woo argued Bitcoin may be moving beyond its four-year halving cycle into a six-to-eight-year rhythm driven more by institutional capital and macro liquidity. In a post he wrote: “Bitcoin could be moving to a six-to-eight-year rhythm tied more closely to traditional finance’s short-term debt cycle than to its halving schedule.” The post noted halvings remain a factor but their relative influence may decline as institutional holdings expand.
The April 2024 halving cut the block reward to 3.125 BTC, leaving annual new issuance at about 164,250 BTC, roughly 0.82% of the current circulating supply. The next halving, expected in 2028, is projected to reduce annual miner issuance to about 82,125 BTC, roughly 0.41% of today’s supply.
Data show roughly 100 public companies hold more than 1.2 million BTC, while global Bitcoin exchange-traded products control over 1.5 million coins. Combined institutional holdings exceed 2.7 million BTC, which is more than 16 times the current annual miner issuance. After the 2028 halving, the gap would widen as miner issuance falls.
Research from Galaxy Research, 21Shares and Fidelity Digital Assets describes the four-year pattern as still visible but with a compressing amplitude. Those reports note that a larger market capitalization, a broader institutional base and lower volatility could result in different cycle dynamics going forward.
Market analysts state the limited number of completed cycles makes any single pattern tentative. They note institutional holdings change the scale and context in which supply shocks, global liquidity and investor behavior interact, and they do not mechanically determine price.
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