Bitcoin sell-side risk falls to one-month low

Analytics firm Glassnode reported on Sept. 9, using on-chain data through Sept. 7, that Bitcoin’s seven-day sell-side risk ratio fell to 7 basis points, down from a 16-basis-point peak in August. Over the same seven-day window, long-term holders accounted for 47% of realized profit, down from 88% at August’s peak.

Glassnode defines the Sell-Side Risk Ratio as the sum of on-chain realized profits and losses divided by realized capitalization. A lower ratio means less profit and loss is being realized relative to the network’s realized capital base. The metric does not directly measure trading volume on exchanges.

The report notes a realized-profit spike on Sept. 3 that was smaller than the spike seen in August, indicating reduced profit-taking in the most recent period compared with the prior month.

Glassnode identified roughly 1.07 million BTC that were acquired between $83,000 and $86,000 and remained largely unchanged over the prior 30 days. The firm reported that almost all of that block is held by long-term holders.

On-chain exchange flow measures showed spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) remained negative on Sept. 8, which indicates that aggressive executed selling on exchanges still exceeded aggressive executed buying. Glassnode explained that CVD tracks the balance of executed buy and sell trades, and that a lower sell-side risk reading does not require CVD to flip positive.

The report cautioned that treating the entire 1.07 million BTC block as immediate selling pressure would overstate the evidence. It noted that lower on-chain sell-side risk and a reduced share of profits taken by long-term holders describe recent on-chain behavior, and that subsequent market moves will depend on whether buyers absorb any supply brought to exchanges.