Bitcoin Rose 84% as 10-Year Treasury Yields Climbed

Bitcoin traded below $84,000 on Oct. 7, reaching about $83,086 at 14:25 UTC. It was down 2.68% over 24 hours. The 10-year nominal Treasury yield was 5.27% on Oct. 6, compared with 5.31% a day earlier.

The 10-year real Treasury yield, which measures the return after inflation, was 2.91% on Oct. 6, down from 2.95% the previous day. Both yields reached their highest levels in the daily data set on Oct. 5. The data set covers observations beginning in January 2017.

Bitcoin gained 84.2% from Jan. 10, 2024, through Oct. 5, 2026. During the same period, the 10-year nominal yield rose 127 basis points and the real yield increased 113 basis points.

An analysis of 2,435 matched daily observations from Jan. 4, 2017, through Oct. 5, 2026, found a correlation of negative 0.004 between Bitcoin returns and changes in the 10-year nominal yield. The correlation with changes in the real yield was negative 0.047. Values close to zero indicate little linear relationship between the daily changes.

The post-ETF period produced similar daily results. Across 682 matched observations from Jan. 11, 2024, through Oct. 5, 2026, Bitcoin returns had correlations of positive 0.054 with nominal yield changes and positive 0.042 with real yield changes.

The Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded product shares on Jan. 10, 2024. BlackRock’s IBIT began trading on Nasdaq the following day. Those dates define the post-ETF period in the analysis, which does not isolate the effect of the funds on Bitcoin’s performance.

Bitcoin’s daily returns had a correlation of negative 0.098 with returns from the ICE Dollar Index across the full sample and negative 0.089 during the post-ETF period. The analysis used Bitcoin observations from Coinbase, Treasury yield data from the Federal Reserve’s FRED database and dollar-index data distributed by Yahoo Finance.

Monthly data produced different results. Across 116 full months from February 2017 through September 2026, correlations with changes in nominal yields, real yields and the dollar index were negative 0.081, negative 0.228 and negative 0.164, respectively. Across 32 full post-ETF months, the corresponding figures were positive 0.207, positive 0.126 and 0.002.

The observations were matched by date, with missing data omitted. Returns between consecutive common dates could span weekends or holidays. Closing times differed among the data sets, so the analysis did not compare synchronized intraday movements. Correlations measure co-movement and do not establish causation.