Bitcoin Rises 24%; Model Forecasts Volatile September

Bitcoin climbed about 23.5% in August and traded near $77,700 on Aug. 31. A forecasting model using a $77,667 reference close from Aug. 30 projects a median price of $81,319 for Sept. 29, implying a roughly 4.7% gain from the reference close.

The model’s distribution places the 20th-percentile point at $72,502 and the 80th-percentile point at $91,049. The $18,547 gap between those percentiles shows a wide range of possible month-end outcomes around the $81,319 median.

A market signal tied to the model registered 68 out of 100 after a late-week pullback, a measure of trailing market conditions. Daily closes used in the model ran from $62,813.75 on July 31 to the $77,667 reference on Aug. 30.

Flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds were a material factor in August’s price advance. A nine-day inflow streak that totaled about $3.04 billion ended with net outflows of $201.9 million on Aug. 28. Separate analysis of the rally identified roughly $2.23 billion of spot ETF demand supporting the late-August rise.

Futures open interest, measured in Bitcoin, fell about 11% during the period and funding rates were near neutral, indicating reduced speculative leverage as cash buying contributed to the advance.

Price action tested technical levels late in August. Rejection above roughly $81,000 left $80,000 as a near-term reclaim threshold, while immediate support was placed around $77,000.

On Aug. 31 Bitcoin traded near $77,700, up about 0.27% over the prior 24 hours and roughly 26% over 30 days by the reference figures. Market capitalization stood near $1.59 trillion, 24-hour trading volume around $33.13 billion and circulating supply about 20.08 million coins.

The model’s central forecast projects slower percentage gains into late September than August’s advance. ETF flows, futures open interest and funding levels are cited as near-term factors that could affect short-term price moves.