Bitcoin Retreats as Thin Volume Leaves $81,900 in Focus

Bitcoin traded near $83,100 on Oct. 8 after briefly closing above $85,000 on Sunday. The cryptocurrency later fell below sell orders near that level, and buying support around $85,000 weakened.

Combined Bitcoin trading on spot exchanges and U.S. spot exchange-traded funds averaged about $6.8 billion a day during the seven days through Oct. 6, Glassnode data showed. The figure was below the level recorded on 90% of trading days since January 2024.

The attempted breakout also came with low activity. Bitcoin’s close above $85,000 on Sunday occurred with about half the volume of a typical Sunday. No session since Sept. 22 recorded normal spot volume for its day of the week.

Short-term holders accounted for about 86% of the Bitcoin transferred to exchanges on Oct. 4 at a profit, Glassnode data showed. That was the highest share in a year, compared with less than 40% on a typical day. Exchange transfers can precede sales, although they do not confirm that the coins were sold.

CryptoQuant data showed that about 92% of short-term holders remained in profit, representing roughly 3.27 million Bitcoin. The firm defines short-term holders as investors who have owned Bitcoin for fewer than 155 days.

Bitcoin purchased between one week and one month earlier had an average cost basis of about $81,900, according to CryptoQuant data. The level was about 1.4% below the price on Oct. 8. A decline below $81,900 would leave more recent buyers with unrealized losses, while prices above it would keep much of that group in profit.

New capital has grown more slowly than Bitcoin’s realized capitalization. Glassnode estimated that U.S. spot ETF flows, stablecoin growth and corporate treasury purchases added about $4.9 billion during the 30 days through Oct. 5. Bitcoin’s realized capitalization increased by about $12.8 billion over the same period.

Bitcoin is trading between the $85,000 resistance level and the $81,900 average cost basis for recent buyers. Spot and ETF trading volumes, along with holder activity near those levels, will provide data on demand and selling pressure.