Bitcoin Rebound Tests $80,400 After $730 Million ETF Outflows

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $484.9 million in net outflows on Oct. 7 and $244.1 million on Oct. 8, according to daily flow data. The funds posted a $21.1 million net inflow on Oct. 9, leaving the two-day outflow largely intact.

A 09:49 UTC snapshot put Binance BTC futures open interest at $7.70 billion. Funding was negative, meaning traders holding long positions received payments from traders holding short positions.

Bitcoin’s price, open interest and funding rate provide different indications of futures positioning. A rising price with stable or increasing open interest and modest funding would indicate that traders are adding positions. A rising price with falling open interest would be consistent with short covering or the closing of existing positions.

A falling price with declining open interest would indicate continued deleveraging. A falling price with rising open interest could indicate new bearish positions, particularly if funding becomes more negative.

Bitcoin could target $84,500 to $85,000 if it holds above $82,000, open interest stabilizes or increases, and funding remains moderate. Stronger spot demand and more short liquidations than long liquidations would support that scenario.

A break below $80,400 would put $80,000 in focus if open interest continues to fall, funding becomes more negative and long liquidations return. Weak demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs would add to the pressure.

Sunday’s Bitcoin options expiry on Deribit has $272.4 million in open interest, including $174 million in puts and $98.5 million in calls. The put-to-call ratio is 1.77. The contracts are scheduled to settle at 08:00 UTC on Oct. 11. Saturday’s expiry has already settled.

The put-heavy options book identifies where risk is concentrated, but it does not show which side opened the contracts. The positions may reflect downside hedging or bearish exposure.

Deribit’s Bitcoin volatility index, DVOL, was 36.63% annualized in the same snapshot. Using an assumed Bitcoin price of $82,600, that reading implies a two-day, one-standard-deviation range of about $2,239 in either direction, or roughly $80,400 to $84,800.

Weekend trading often has lower spot-market liquidity and greater reliance on futures and options. A sharp move below $79,000 or above $86,000 without support from open interest, funding and spot demand could reverse quickly.