Bitcoin near $65,000 as jobs data and Hormuz tensions clash

Bitcoin traded near $65,000 after the U.S. July jobs report lowered market odds of a September Federal Reserve rate increase, while rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz lifted oil prices and added a geopolitical risk factor ahead of the weekend.

The U.S. economy reported a loss of 23,000 jobs in July, well below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by a combined 103,000. The labor-force participation rate slipped and wage growth cooled. Market pricing cut the probability of a September rate hike from about 57% to roughly 44%. Two-year Treasury yields fell to about 4.19% and the 10-year to about 4.64%, and the dollar weakened on the report.

On-chain data and fund flows showed steady demand for Bitcoin. Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC added more than 20,000 BTC since July 29. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $763.7 million in weekly inflows, their largest weekly intake since April. Price remained below the short-term holders’ average acquisition cost, identified near $69,000.

Options markets priced a relatively quiet weekend. The implied Bitcoin volatility index was near 35, down from around 90 earlier this year, implying a two-day move of about 2.59%, or roughly $1,676 at current prices. That corresponds to an expected range between about $63,000 and $66,400, with a breakout trigger near $67,300 lying outside that window. Put options made up 53.8% of recent options volume, and $62,000 and $63,000 puts ranked among the most actively traded contracts, indicating traders were buying protection against a larger downside move than current volatility implies.

Brent crude settled at $82.49, up 3.8% for the week, after reports that Iran reviewed a bill to ban certain vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz and to fine violators up to 20% of cargo value. U.S. energy estimates place roughly one-fifth of global oil and petroleum product consumption moving through the strait, and roughly 20% of global liquefied natural gas trade also passes there. Available alternative-route capacity is estimated at 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels per day, compared with about 20 million barrels per day that typically traverse the channel.

Open interest in options clustered near the $70,000 and $72,000 strikes, totaling about $5 billion combined on one exchange, with calls outnumbering puts. If buying by large holders and ETFs keeps Bitcoin above roughly $65,500 and pushes through the $67,000–$68,000 band, those strike concentrations would be a notable reference point for market activity. Conversely, an escalation of Hormuz tensions that lifts oil further would increase inflation concerns in markets and could put stress on the $62,000–$63,000 put zone; a failure of that zone would expose a $60,000 floor, a level below the cost basis for close to one-fifth of circulating Bitcoin.

Bitcoin will continue trading through the weekend while U.S. Treasuries, oil futures and equity markets are closed, leaving cryptocurrency as the immediate market available to reflect which headline-economic or geopolitical-dominates. The Senate will not vote on the CLARITY Act before recess, removing a near-term regulatory event that some traders had expected to affect price, leaving macroeconomic and geopolitical developments to drive activity until standard markets reopen.