Bitcoin near $64K as market waits US June CPI

Bitcoin traded near $64,100 after a 2.6% gain over seven days as traders awaited the US June consumer price index, due at 8:30 a.m. ET on July 14. The report is the next major macro data point before the Federal Reserve’s July 29 meeting.

Seven‑day performance rose about 2.6% while 24‑hour trading volume ran roughly 21% below its recent average, reflecting subdued trading activity. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $90.4 million on July 10 after combined outflows of $180.2 million over the prior two sessions.

Futures‑derived probabilities put a 64.6% chance on the Fed holding its target range at 3.50%–3.75% on July 29 and a 35.4% chance of a quarter‑point hike. By September, markets assign a 50.9% probability to a 3.75%–4.00% range and an 18.8% chance of 4.00%–4.25%.

The two‑year Treasury yield stood near 4.21% and the 10‑year around 4.56% ahead of the CPI release. The dollar traded near the 101 level. Market participants are watching whether yields, the dollar and Fed odds move together after the inflation reading and how ETF flows respond.

Derivatives positioning showed futures open interest near $47.3 billion, funding rates modestly positive, and recent activity dominated by short liquidations, a combination that left long exposure limited rather than broad‑based.

Bitcoin’s market capitalization was about $1.29 trillion and 24‑hour trading volume was in the low tens of billions of dollars. Price behavior around the $64,000 area will be monitored in the days following the CPI release, with attention on yields, the dollar and ETF flows.