Bitcoin Holds Near $63.5K as CLARITY Odds Fall to 30%

As the Senate approaches its Aug. 7 recess, the probability that the CLARITY Act will pass this year has declined to about 30%. Bitcoin is trading near $63,500, higher than roughly $61,900 on June 5 when Galaxy Digital assessed the bill’s chances at 60%.

Charles Schwab’s analysis highlighted a gap between falling passage odds and a steady Bitcoin price. Schwab described the setup as “limited legislative downside with an embedded call option” and reported that changes in CLARITY passage odds explained an average 4.3% of Bitcoin’s daily price variation in a model that included the Nasdaq 100, Treasury yields, oil, inflation breakevens, the dollar and crypto liquidations. Excluding liquidations increased CLARITY’s share to 8%. The model assigned about 20.5% of movement to Nasdaq-linked risk appetite and left roughly 60% unexplained by the tested factors.

Anne Kelley, a former deputy director in the SEC’s Office of Legislative and Intergovernmental Affairs, described Senate floor time as “the most valuable commodity in Washington.” She pointed to competing priorities such as Russia sanctions, the SAVE Act and budget measures. Under Senate Rule XXII, post-cloture consideration can consume up to 30 hours unless senators agree to accelerate the process, which limits opportunities to advance other bills before the recess.

Lawmakers also have unresolved policy questions on government ethics, consumer protections, measures to curb illicit finance and incentives for stablecoins. Those outstanding issues narrow the window for further negotiation and reduce the likelihood that the CLARITY Act will clear the Senate in the current timeframe.

Market activity shows continued interest in spot Bitcoin products. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded about $1.97 billion in net inflows for the month, with notable flows into major products including BlackRock’s IBIT and newer offerings such as Morgan Stanley’s MSBT. Schwab cited April’s period of institutional product expansion, when Bitcoin rose from about $66,000 to roughly $82,000, as an example of price movement coinciding with expanded spot services by financial firms.

Forecasters differ on the price implications of a federal market framework. FM Intelligence assigns a 25% probability to a bullish scenario valuing Bitcoin between $135,000 and $200,000 over the next year, conditional in part on CLARITY becoming law before the November midterms; its base case ranges from $95,000 to $130,000. Asset manager Grayscale has suggested Bitcoin may be approaching a bear-market low and that passage this year could prompt greater institutional demand.

Schwab’s findings indicate traders may give limited weight to incremental shifts in legislative odds until a definitive congressional outcome appears. An additional delay would extend the current status quo; advancing the bill before the recess would require additional floor time and votes.