Bitcoin could slip to $60k if $62k breaks, $1.17B puts loom

Bitcoin traded near $62,900 as markets entered the weekend. Exchange data show a sustained close below $62,000 could activate roughly $1.17 billion of $60,000 put open interest and move price toward $60,000. Monthly Bitcoin options worth about $9.6 billion to $9.7 billion settled at 08:00 UTC on the final Friday of July.

The immediate technical test is the $62,000 level. Price needs to remain under $62,000 through attempted rebounds for downside pressure to persist; a brief wick below that level would not be sufficient. Liquidity inside a ±1% band around spot across major venues — Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, OKX and Bybit — will affect how far weekend market orders can travel. Market participants are watching bid and ask depth within that band.

Nearby liquidity is being measured by three four-hour medians: the 04:00–08:00 UTC reading, the 08:00–12:00 UTC reading, and the latest depth entering Aug. 1. An aggregate decline of at least 15% in that two-sided depth across three major venues would indicate a market-wide withdrawal of liquidity near spot. A sharper drop in bids than asks, for example a 20% fall in bid depth that outpaces ask losses, would reduce the capital available to absorb selling and make downward moves easier. A larger contraction in asks would leave more open space above the market, allowing modest buying to lift price with less volume.

A bearish confirmation would include sustained trading below $62,000 with spot selling leading futures, open interest rising during the decline, and perpetual funding remaining neutral or positive as price falls. Refilled sell orders on each rebound would indicate sellers rebuilding resistance. If those conditions appear, the $60,000 put position-holding about $1.17 billion in open interest and roughly 4.6% below the weekend starting price-becomes the next visible destination. After $60,000 is lost, the late-June area near $58,000 becomes relevant based on the July 31 range and the options book.

The US-traded spot Bitcoin ETF channel is closed for the weekend, so ETF flows cannot trade until Monday. CME cryptocurrency derivatives operate 24/7 and can transmit hedge demand over the weekend. Farside Investors recorded $233.1 million of net ETF inflows on July 30, bringing cumulative ETF inflows to about $51.64 billion heading into the final days of July.

The alternative bullish path requires ask-side liquidity to thin faster than bids, allowing spot buying to lift Bitcoin through $64,000 and $64,500 with relatively little capital. A sustained move above $65,300 would clear the July 31 high and repair the immediate breakdown. A rebound led by dollar-denominated buying on US venues with spot volume expanding while open interest falls would be consistent with short covering and direct buying rather than fresh leveraged longs. If $65,300 is reclaimed, the next upside zones to watch are near $66,000 and $68,000.

Weekend price action will shape what ETF traders face on Monday. A close below $62,000 would place the reopening of the ETF channel inside the route toward $60,000, while a close above $65,300 would reopen $66,000 and $68,000 as targets. A close between $62,000 and $65,300 would likely alter volatility without changing the immediate directional evidence. Sunday’s final session will define the setup that markets and ETF participants receive on Monday.