Bitcoin flashes three macro-bottom signals; $70K uncertain

Bitcoin rose above $66,000 and showed a cluster of technical measures that some analysts identify with long-term cycle lows after the token corrected to roughly $58,000 last month and then rebounded.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez flagged three specific indicators: a monthly Relative Strength Index near 43.65, a Chande Momentum Oscillator around -71 and price trading close to the 50-month moving average. The monthly RSI compares average monthly gains to losses, the Chande Momentum Oscillator tracks price momentum, and the 50-month moving average follows the roughly four-year trend.

The same combination of indicators appeared at prior long-term lows. In 2015 the setup was near $235, followed by a multi-year rally; in early 2019 it showed up near $3,333; and in late 2022 it appeared around $16,000. Historical cycle gains measured from those lows are cited as follows: about 8,300% after 2015, about 1,900% after 2019 and roughly 675% after late 2022.

On-chain data from analytics provider CryptoQuant shows a contrasting liquidity picture. The total stablecoin market cap has fallen by more than $10 billion over the past month. Stablecoins have moved off exchanges for 35 consecutive days, and stablecoin share on exchanges is about 13%, narrowing the gap with Ethereum’s exchange market share. Spot markets show Bitcoin holding above $65,000, but CryptoQuant data do not show a marked increase in spot accumulation on exchanges.

A decline in stablecoin balances on exchanges reduces the amount of immediately deployable dollar-denominated liquidity for spot and futures buys. Market participants and traders will monitor whether fresh stablecoin inflows or renewed spot accumulation appear on-chain to coincide with higher prices and a potential move toward $70,000.

The observed technical readings, the recent price path from the $58,000 correction to the run above $66,000, and the stablecoin supply and flow data are the primary facts now informing market commentary and trading decisions.