Bitcoin falls under $65,000 as oil tops $100 after attacks

Bitcoin traded near $64,980 on July 23 after Brent crude settled at $100.69 a barrel following attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Brent later eased to about $96.70 in European trading.

The tanker incidents prompted President Trump to warn Iran and Houthi forces of “major military punishment” and to say future damages to ships and cargo could be covered with Iranian funds under U.S. control. U.S. forces had carried out a 13th consecutive night of strikes related to the broader hostilities.

Markets moved across asset classes on July 23. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to about 4.7%, its highest level since January 2025. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.2% the same day. The CME FedWatch tool placed the probability of a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate increase at the July 28-29 meeting at roughly 40%.

Analysts flagged the potential for higher oil to affect inflation and interest-rate paths. JPMorgan analysts estimated each additional month of constrained supply through key shipping lanes could add $7 to $8 a barrel to Brent, and a three-month disruption could push the monthly average toward $114. André Dragosch, head of research for Europe at Bitwise, warned a sustained rise in oil could push the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%. Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, noted rising term premiums could put pressure on both bonds and equities at once.

Institutional demand indicators for Bitcoin showed signs of weakening. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $225.2 million in net outflows on July 23, ending a seven-session inflow streak that had brought in almost $1 billion; the funds remained about $274 million positive for the week through Thursday.

On-chain data and market metrics pointed to a divergence between spot and derivatives demand. Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, indicated spot demand had been flat or negative since June while futures demand remained positive but at lower levels than during Bitcoin’s rebound three months earlier. Futures traders continued to add exposure, but at a slower pace.

Higher oil prices, rising Treasury yields and softer spot demand coincided with downward pressure on Bitcoin around the $65,000 level. Markets will monitor shipping through the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb passage for signs of further disruption that could influence oil, yields and risk assets.