Bitcoin Drops During U.S. Hours as Coinbase Discount Widens

Bitcoin lost a compounded 3.24% during U.S. stock-market hours from Sept. 21 to Oct. 7, while prices outside that window rose 6.07%, according to an analysis of Binance BTC/USDT trading data. The Coinbase Premium Gap fell to negative $64, indicating weaker demand or heavier selling on Coinbase, a U.S.-focused exchange.

The decline occurred across 13 Wall Street sessions, during which Bitcoin fell in eight. The analysis measured returns from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. New York time. Bitcoin’s losses were concentrated on Sept. 30 and Oct. 2, when it fell 1.86% and 2.65%, respectively, during U.S. trading hours.

Excluding those two sessions, Bitcoin gained a compounded 1.28% during the other 11 sessions. The figures show that two sharp declines accounted for much of the overall loss.

The results changed when different opening times were used. Bitcoin lost 4.94% between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m. and 5.41% between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. over the same period. After Sept. 30 and Oct. 2 were excluded, those windows recorded losses of 0.16% and 1.68%, respectively.

Coinbase data showed a similar pattern. Bitcoin fell about 4.85% between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m. and 5.36% between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. The data from both exchanges showed weaker Bitcoin prices during U.S. trading hours, but did not identify the investors responsible for the selling.

The Coinbase Premium Gap measures the difference between Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase and its price on other markets. A negative reading means Bitcoin is trading at a lower price on Coinbase. The discount can result from weaker buying demand or heavier selling. The measure does not identify whether the activity came from institutions, retail traders, market makers or investors outside the United States.

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $148.7 million in net outflows on Sept. 30, the same day as the first major U.S.-session decline. On Oct. 2, the funds recorded $189.9 million in net inflows while Bitcoin fell 2.65% during Wall Street hours. ETF flows therefore moved in opposite directions on the two dates.

The funds recorded $484.9 million in net outflows on Oct. 7. Daily flow figures do not show when the underlying Bitcoin was sold or identify the investors behind the transactions.

Crypto ETF withdrawals can involve transferring Bitcoin instead of making an immediate cash sale. Regulators allowed in-kind creations and redemptions for crypto ETFs in 2025, adding another way for fund activity to affect market flows.

On-chain data indicated that Bitcoin’s net gains since Sept. 21 had largely come outside the U.S. trading session. Further trading sessions, Coinbase pricing and ETF flow data will provide additional data on whether the pattern continues.