Bitcoin decouples from AI stocks as oil near $96 threatens gains

A joint report from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode covering data through June 30 found that Bitcoin’s daily correlation with the S&P 500 dropped to 0.12 in the second quarter. The report recorded a 0.21 correlation with the Nasdaq and stronger links with precious metals: 0.57 with gold and 0.63 with silver. On-chain data in the report showed coins last transacted within three months at multi-year lows and an increase in dormant supply.

The report linked the metal correlations to real yields and dollar strength. When real Treasury yields and the dollar firm, both Bitcoin and gold have fallen together, the report noted, reducing the diversification benefit of holding Bitcoin alongside precious metals.

The report outlined several market events in the coming week that intersect with the quarter Bitcoin entered. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on July 28–29. Major tech earnings dates include Microsoft and Meta on July 29 and Amazon on July 30. Alphabet raised its 2026 capital-expenditure guidance to $195 billion–$205 billion on July 22 and reported negative free cash flow of $5.9 billion for the quarter. The report cited aggregated capital spending by the largest U.S. hyperscalers and external projections that large AI infrastructure investment is expected this year and next.

The Federal Reserve’s July Monetary Policy Report showed PCE inflation at 4.1% and core PCE at 3.4% for the 12 months through May. The June Summary of Economic Projections raised the 2026 median PCE forecast to 3.6% and nudged the year-end federal funds rate median to 3.8%.

Oil prices were highlighted as a key variable. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s July baseline projected Brent crude at $74 per barrel in Q3, while market prices traded around $96 on July 24. On that date the 10-year Treasury yield reached about 4.71% and the 30-year yield was near a 19-year high. The report also noted gold trading near $4,073 an ounce and silver near $58.77 on July 24.

The report presented two scenarios. In the first, investors punish richly valued AI shares or seek clearer returns on capital, Treasury yields decline, the dollar weakens, and capital rotates to scarce assets so that Bitcoin, gold and silver rise together. In the second scenario, higher energy prices, tariffs or infrastructure demand keep inflation elevated, Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen, and tech shares, metals and Bitcoin fall together.

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted net outflows through the first half of the year, the report found. The funds recorded seven consecutive days of net inflows through July 22 totaling nearly $1 billion, followed by a $225 million outflow on July 23. The report said longer flow patterns will be needed to determine whether capital is rotating from technology stocks into crypto.

The report concluded that Bitcoin’s trajectory over the next quarter depends on whether equity weakness lowers the cost of money or raises it, with oil prices likely to influence that outcome ahead of the Fed meeting.