Bitcoin rises as gasoline eases; Americans expect 8.3% rent rise

Bitcoin climbed to about $64,700 after the June Consumer Price Index fell 0.4% month‑over‑month, the largest monthly decline since 2020. The drop in the headline CPI was driven mainly by lower energy costs. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, held at 2.6% year‑over‑year.

The Census Bureau reported nominal retail sales rose 0.2% in June. Gasoline station receipts posted their largest monthly decline since December 2022. Excluding autos and gas, retail sales increased 0.4%. The Census Bureau’s control group, a measure used in GDP calculations that strips out volatile categories, rose 0.5%. Retail sales are reported in nominal terms and do not adjust for price changes.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the import price index rose 0.3% in June, down from a 1.9% gain in May. The monthly slowdown reflected declines in petroleum and natural gas prices. Nonfuel import prices rose 0.1%, with small gains in capital goods, industrial supplies and consumer goods. On a 12‑month basis, import prices are up 6.7% and export prices are up 11.2%. The import price series does not include tariffs or customs duties.

Federal Reserve industrial production data for June showed manufacturing output stalled. Durable goods production fell, with declines in machinery and electrical equipment, while nondurable goods recorded a small increase. Overall industrial production rose mainly because utilities increased with summer demand. Manufacturing capacity utilization slipped to 75.7%, below its long‑run average.

The New York Fed’s monthly survey of consumer expectations found households expect to spend 5% more over the next year while expecting income to rise 3%. The median one‑year inflation expectation rose to 3.7%. Respondents anticipated gasoline prices would decline but expected medical costs to rise 9.4% and rent to rise 8.3% over the coming year.

Monetary policy data noted the Federal Reserve’s target range for the federal funds rate remains 3.50% to 3.75%. Nine of 18 Fed officials projected at least one more rate increase this year. After the June inflation release, market‑implied odds of a September rate hike fell to roughly 50%–63% from about 75% the day before the report.

Markets reacted to the data: Bitcoin rose following the CPI report and government bond yields eased. The week’s releases included the headline inflation drop driven by energy, nominal retail gains, unchanged core inflation, stalled factory output and consumer expectations of higher rent and medical costs.