Bitcoin hits $80K breakeven wall of 880,000 BTC

Bitcoin traded near $77,890 after spending much of the past week below $80,000. Bitfinex data shows roughly 880,000 BTC carry acquisition prices between about $77,500 and $80,300, creating a narrow price band that represents nearly $68 billion of supply.

That $2,800 range means modest price moves can flip large blocks of coins between profit and loss. Sellers clustered around breakeven have been met by buyers so far, limiting deeper declines.

On-chain indicators point to holders using the rally to exit without taking major losses. The exchange’s long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has been near 1 for nine sessions, with readings between 0.88 and 1.19 and a latest level around 0.98. A SOPR near 1 indicates coins are moving at roughly the price they were bought, a pattern tied to investors who accumulated in February and March.

Bitfinex’s True Market Mean, an estimate of the average acquisition price of active investors, stands near $76,350, placing the market only slightly above another concentration of holders near cost. Profitability has shifted with price: when Bitcoin closed at $80,256 on Aug. 27, 72.1% of supply was in profit; after a close at $77,468 a few days later, the share in profit fell to 67.7%.

Demand absorbing breakeven sellers has varied. Corporate buyer Strategy resumed purchases after a 10-week pause, acquiring 4,603 BTC for about $369.7 million between Aug. 24 and Aug. 30 at an average price near $80,318, bringing its holdings to 845,050 BTC. At the same time, US spot Bitcoin ETF flows have been uneven: a nine-session inflow streak totaled about $3.04 billion before a $201.9 million outflow on Aug. 28, followed by alternating inflows and withdrawals into September.

Derivatives positioning shows some traders preparing for a failure to clear the breakeven shelf while implied volatility remains low. Average Bitcoin implied volatility measured 37.2 in Bitfinex’s analysis, in the 18th percentile of daily closes over the past year. Options expiring Sept. 11 show roughly one put outstanding for every call, compared with a 0.56 put-call ratio across the broader options market. Downside protection is concentrated between $68,000 and $75,000, while the largest call open interest sits at $80,000.

The timing of expiries and protective positions aligns with upcoming US payroll and inflation releases and follows comments at the Jackson Hole symposium that contributed to a pullback from an Aug. 28 high above $81,000.

Bitfinex identified technical thresholds traders are watching: two daily closes above about $82,818, alongside improving holder profitability and renewed ETF inflows, would indicate the breakeven shelf has been absorbed and could bring a roughly $85,200 cost-basis level into view. Two closes below about $76,657 would weaken current support and could open moves toward $73,500 and a short-term holder cost basis near $69,980.

Bitcoin’s late-August rally was a roughly 24% gain in the week ended Aug. 23. Bitfinex’s historical analysis shows weeks with gains above 15% since 2020 were higher 30 days later in 14 of 17 cases, with a median return of 8.4%.

Before Bitcoin can sustain an advance above $80,000, buyers must absorb the roughly $68 billion of supply sitting at breakeven.