Bitcoin $70,000 hedge cost more than doubles in one day

The November 27 $70,000 Bitcoin put traded at 0.0145 BTC at 11:51 UTC on November 12 and 0.033 BTC at 10:15 UTC on November 13. The increase was 127.6% in Bitcoin terms.

Bitcoin’s index price fell from $72,805.71 at the first trade to $69,320.08 at the second, moving from above the strike to below it. A put can provide protection against a price below its strike at expiry, which can increase its value when the underlying asset falls.

The implied volatility reported for the two trades fell from 38.97% to 37.67%. The figures apply to the individual November 27 put trades, not Deribit’s broader DVOL index. The trades had different amounts of time remaining, different levels of moneyness and different execution sizes, so they do not isolate the effect of implied volatility on the premium.

At 10:40:51 UTC on November 13, the option’s order book showed a 0.0325 BTC bid and a 0.0335 BTC ask. Bitcoin’s index price was $69,245.85. The ask was worth about $2,319.74 for one contract before fees. The 127.6% increase compares executed trade prices rather than executable bid and ask quotes.

Deribit’s inverse Bitcoin options are quoted in BTC, and one contract represents one Bitcoin. Converting each trade at its contemporaneous index price produced dollar values of about $1,055.68 on November 12 and $2,287.56 on November 13. The dollar increase was 116.7%.

The price of a put depends on several factors, including Bitcoin’s price, the strike, the forward price, implied volatility and time remaining. The November 27 contract had about 14 days until expiry at the time of the observations, with less time remaining at the second trade.

Deribit’s DVOL index, which measures 30-day forward implied volatility across strikes and expiries, was near 40 on November 13. Completed hourly readings from 00:00 through 09:00 UTC ranged from 39.03 to 41.58. The 09:00 UTC bucket closed at 39.93, while the 10:00 UTC bucket was incomplete at 10:40 UTC.

Historical data showed DVOL at 40.77 against a median of 77.8 across 290 daily closes since March 2021 when Bitcoin was at least 17.4% below its rolling 30-day closing high. The median for comparable 2026 observations was 49.9. The observations could overlap during the same market decline and did not represent 290 separate market crises.

The option observations were recorded before the scheduled release of the October Producer Price Index at 13:30 UTC on November 13. The release timing provides a reference for comparing later price and volatility data, but does not establish a cause for the earlier change.

The $70,000 strike does not guarantee a net sale price of $70,000. The buyer pays the premium in BTC, while fees, delivery costs, currency conversion and the settlement reference affect the final result. An in-the-money inverse put settles through an immediately settling inverse futures contract into BTC. An out-of-the-money put expires worthless.