Bitcoin faces $65,000 test as jobs week could send it to $60,000

Bitcoin traded between $62,200 and $65,000 and was near $63,700 after the Aug. 3 ISM Manufacturing PMI and ahead of a week of U.S. labor data. Market participants are watching whether the sequence of reports through Friday will push the token above resistance or through key supports.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI printed 55.6 on Aug. 3, above the 54.0 consensus and the highest reading since May 2022. New orders rose to 56.7 and the employment component reached 52.8, back in expansion after several months. The ISM prices-paid measure remained at 71.1. When the report arrived, Bitcoin traded in a session range of about $62,227 to $64,059.

The Federal Open Market Committee on July 29 left its target range at 3.50%–3.75% in a 9-3 vote. Three officials-Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan-voted for an immediate 25-basis-point hike. The Fed vote and the week’s economic calendar are central to how traders are positioning ahead of Friday’s payrolls data.

Four data releases are scheduled before the jobs report. The JOLTS report on Tuesday will show June job openings, hires and quits; May’s openings were 7.6 million, hires 5.2 million and quits 3.1 million. Wednesday brings the ISM Services index, with attention on its employment component and prices-paid reading. Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern includes preliminary second-quarter productivity and unit labor-cost figures and weekly jobless claims. The U.S. Employment Situation for July is due Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern; June’s payrolls rose by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2% and labor-force participation was 61.5%.

Technical levels cited by market participants run from the August 1 intraday floor near $62,200 to resistance clustered between $64,000 and $65,000. A sustained close below $62,000 would expose a reference near $61,200, with $60,000 and the 52-week low near $57,800 noted as further downside reference points. On the upside, a close above $65,000 that holds through the next session is the condition most traders are watching to reopen a path toward July’s high near $66,934.

Other markets are affecting positioning. Equities recovered last week following major earnings, but Bitcoin did not mirror that rally. Oil fell about 5% on Monday after OPEC+ approved a modest September output increase and reports that a U.S. strike on Iran was being held off. The Bank of Japan left its policy rate at 1.0% in July amid a weak yen and reported intervention by Japan’s finance ministry to buy yen; a disorderly move in Japan is flagged as a potential source of broader liquidity stress.

Participants expect the week’s labor reports to influence how the market interprets the Fed’s pause and any prospects for further tightening. Softer readings would reduce perceived odds of additional rate increases and allow risk assets room to test higher levels, while stronger readings would increase perceived odds of renewed tightening and could put downward pressure on Bitcoin’s current range.