Bitcoin Could Find $30,000 Floor After Institutional Exit

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju sees Bitcoin finding support near $30,000 even if U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and public companies sell their holdings. His view conflicts with strategist Mike McGlone’s forecast of a decline to $10,000.

Ju wrote on X on Oct. 16 that Bitcoin’s on-chain cost basis could support the market after a hypothetical institutional exit. The scenario would reverse $56.95 billion in cumulative net inflows to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and involve the sale of about 1.3 million BTC held by public companies.

“Even if all of it leaves, on-chain cost basis still puts the floor near $30k,” Ju wrote.

Bitcoin traded near $82,000 on Oct. 18. A decline to $30,000 would represent a drop of about 63% from that level. A fall to McGlone’s $10,000 target would reduce the price by nearly 88%.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had recorded $56.95 billion in cumulative net inflows through Oct. 16, according to Farside Investors. The funds posted more than $900 million in net outflows during the two weeks ending on that date.

Public companies held about 1.302 million BTC across 180 corporate treasuries, according to CoinGecko. The holdings represented about 6.2% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply and were worth approximately $106 billion at recent prices. Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, held 848,250 BTC, or about 65% of the total held by public companies.

Ju based his estimate on Bitcoin’s market-value-to-realized-value ratio, known as MVRV. The measure compares Bitcoin’s market value with the value of coins based on the prices at which they last moved on the blockchain. The second figure, known as realized price, is often used as an estimate of the average cost basis of Bitcoin holders.

Bitcoin’s realized price was near $53,855 on Oct. 18, according to Perly’s on-chain data. Using that figure as a fixed reference, a market price of $30,000 would produce an MVRV ratio of about 0.56. A price of $10,000 would reduce the ratio to roughly 0.19. The realized price could change during a selloff as coins move between wallets.

Ju identified an MVRV reading near 0.6 as the level associated with Bitcoin’s deepest historical market bottom. The ratio reached about 0.55 in January 2015 and approximately 0.46 in November 2011. More recent market bottoms occurred near 0.69 in 2018 and 0.78 in 2022.

Ju also referred to investors who bought Bitcoin in 2019 and held through two drawdowns of about 75%. He argued that a decline to $10,000 would require those holders to sell after remaining invested through earlier market declines.

McGlone tied his $10,000 forecast to weaker conditions across financial markets. In an Oct. 16 post, he cited Bitcoin’s rise above $100,000 in 2025, gold’s move above $5,000 and higher government bond yields as possible signs of a broad decline in risk assets. He also identified a 20% fall in U.S. equities, higher yields and restrictive monetary policy as factors that could pressure Bitcoin.

ETF redemptions can create spot-market selling, while corporate funding needs or balance-sheet pressure can lead treasury companies to sell Bitcoin. Strategy could face additional pressure if MSCI excludes it from its global indexes. A JPMorgan scenario published in November 2025 estimated that the change could generate about $2.8 billion in passive selling of Strategy shares.