Armstrong: Bitcoin Could Reach $400,000 If It Clears $81,000

In interviews on Sept. 10, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong projected that Bitcoin could reach $400,000 by 2030 if the cryptocurrency posts a weekly close above roughly $81,000. He described the $400,000 figure as “reasonable” and framed the forecast as his personal view rather than a company projection.

At the time of the comments, Bitcoin traded around $77,000, about 39% below its record high of $126,198 set in October 2025. The $81,000 area sits near the cryptocurrency’s 50-week moving average, a level some market participants use to distinguish sustained recoveries from shorter rallies.

Research firm Galaxy Research calculated the 50-week moving average at approximately $81,473 on Sept. 2 and noted that a weekly close above that level would strengthen the case for a recovery. Historical data show that in four of Bitcoin’s five completed bear markets, the first weekly break above the 50-week average occurred after the cycle low had been reached; the exception was a shorter downturn between Bitcoin’s two 2021 record highs.

Price action in August provided evidence consistent with a bottom. Bitcoin rose 25.4% during the month, moving from $62,899 to $78,852. The largest part of that gain occurred in the week ended Aug. 23, when Bitcoin advanced 23.5%, its largest weekly increase in dollar terms on record. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded about $3.4 billion in inflows during August, the biggest monthly total since July 2025.

Analysts pointed to several drivers behind the August rally, including renewed demand for assets sensitive to inflation trends, policy developments in Washington, liquidation of short positions and momentum buying. Some of those forces can be temporary: short-covering and momentum-driven trading can boost prices quickly without establishing steady, long-term demand.

Armstrong linked his longer-term outlook to Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle and the next scheduled halving, expected around 2028, which will reduce the block subsidy paid to miners and slow the rate of new supply entering circulation. From roughly $77,000, Bitcoin would need to gain more than fivefold to reach $400,000, a level more than three times above the October 2025 record.

Near term, the market faces resistance in the low-$80,000 range. Galaxy Research’s moving-average analysis and other technical assessments place a decisive weekly close above the 50-week average as a key test. Armstrong stated, “I personally think we’ve seen the bottom of the Bitcoin price in this cycle.” If Bitcoin clears the 50-week average on a weekly close, that result would align with the technical pattern seen near the end of most previous bear markets; continued rejection at that level would keep prices inside the recovery zone observed since August.