Anonymous $415K ‘No’ Dominates Polymarket CLARITY Odds

An anonymous account holds a $414,895 “No” position on Polymarket’s CLARITY Act market, roughly 2.6 times the platform’s displayed liquidity of $160,200. The account was opened on Aug. 11 with a deposit of about $499,999 in USDC and spent about $398,122 across three trades to build the No side. The final two trades, executed about 14 hours after the first, added roughly 382,601 shares at average prices near $0.7555 and $0.7761. At the time of the snapshot the account held 515,398 No shares and retained about $101,877 in USDC.

Polymarket runs on a central limit order book and displays a single probability that is normally the midpoint between the best bid and best ask. Buyers pay the ask and sellers receive the bid. Large orders execute against resting bids or asks one level at a time, and the displayed midpoint shifts as those orders clear available liquidity.

Cumulative trading on the CLARITY Act market totals about $7.11 million, a historical figure that does not indicate how much can trade immediately without moving the price. Order-book tests run on Aug. 17 showed a 19% Yes bid, a 20% Yes ask and a 19.5% midpoint. A simulated $100,000 Buy Yes order would have filled at an average price of 42.18% and touched a final ask of 87%. A simulated $250,000 Buy Yes order would have cleared $138,559.81 of visible ask liquidity and then exhausted the displayed asks. A simulated $100,000 Sell Yes order would have filled $20,917.91 before visible bids were exhausted down to 1%.

The CLARITY Act proposes which regulator would lead cryptocurrency oversight: the Securities and Exchange Commission or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The House passed its version in July 2025. The bill still requires reconciliation between House and Senate text, a 60-vote cloture threshold in the Senate and the president’s signature to become law. The Senate has a cloture vote scheduled for Sept. 15 at 2:15 p.m.

At the time of the snapshot one account’s No position exceeded the live displayed liquidity, and six-figure orders interacting with that book could change the platform’s displayed probability. Reducing or exiting a position larger than available live liquidity would require counterparties willing to trade at comparable prices.