30-year Treasury tops 5.3% since 2007 as crypto credit falls

On Aug. 17 the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 5.3%, reaching an intraday high of 5.314% and closing near 5.2954%. That was the highest level for the long-term Treasury since June 2007. Weak economic data that week led traders to cut the odds of a September Federal Reserve rate increase to about 31%, down from roughly 55% a week earlier.

Real yields on the 30-year note are close to 3%, near an 18-year high. Alphabet, Amazon and Meta issued nearly $220 billion of corporate bonds so far this year, compared with about $108 billion from the same three companies in 2025.

Galaxy Research’s Q2 2026 leverage report put crypto-collateralized lending at $56.16 billion, a decline of $11.33 billion from the prior quarter and $22.53 billion below a $78.69 billion peak in the third quarter of 2025. Borrowing on decentralized finance lending applications fell from a $47.13 billion peak last September to about $21.94 billion by July 21.

Total crypto-related debt has fallen for three consecutive quarters. The recent reductions occurred in steps of roughly 10%, 5% and 17% across three quarters, the report shows. By contrast, crypto-backed lending declined more than 55% in a single quarter in 2022 and continued to fall in subsequent quarters.

Derivatives exposure rose while collateralized lending shrank. Galaxy reported total crypto futures open interest at $103.2 billion at the end of the second quarter and about $114 billion by the end of July. Bitcoin futures open interest dipped to about $45 billion during the quarter and recovered toward $48 billion. The report notes open interest does not equal leverage because many positions are hedged and not purely directional.

Galaxy’s analysis outlined several possible outcomes tied to long-term yields and crypto leverage. One scenario described the 30-year yield retreating below 5.1% or real yields easing, with futures open interest stable and collateralized lending not expanding, and Bitcoin moving toward a $67,000–$72,000 range. A second scenario described the 30-year rising toward 5.4%–5.7% with real yields remaining high, futures positions and liquidations shifting, and Bitcoin falling below $60,000. A third scenario described collateralized lending accelerating its decline while futures open interest collapsed, producing sharper liquidations.

Bitcoin traded intraday at $64,610.01 on Aug. 17. The report and market data present measures of long-term yields, corporate issuance, collateralized lending and derivatives exposure without predicting which outcome will occur.