U.S. Traders Account for 25% of Offshore Prediction Volume

Crane & Zeng Consulting estimates U.S. traders account for about 25% of annual trading on tracked offshore prediction markets, roughly $21.2 billion. The study covers platforms including Polymarket, Opinion, Predict, Limitless and Myriad and arrives as regulators and lawmakers consider how to govern prediction markets and whether to limit U.S. participation.

Researchers based the estimate on transaction and web traffic analysis across the leading offshore venues. Polymarket’s international site geoblocks U.S. internet addresses; the study estimates about 30% of Polymarket’s $55.6 billion in annual volume originates with U.S. traders, a range the authors put between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion. The report notes many users reach the site via virtual private networks, which violate platform terms.

The report states, “At least 7% of global prediction market trading volume (regulated and offshore) during the TTM (approximately $10.6 billion of an estimated $159 billion combined total) is attributable to US users transacting on offshore venues.” The authors give a broader plausible range of 7–21% ($10.6 billion–$34 billion) for U.S. activity on offshore platforms.

Regulated alternatives for U.S. traders exist. Polymarket US opened in December 2025 as a designated contract market and derivatives clearing organization under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight and removed a U.S. waitlist in May 2026. The platform now serves customers in more than 40 states. A Nevada court granted a preliminary injunction against Polymarket, and Minnesota passed a ban set to take effect in August 2026. Other CFTC-licensed venues such as Kalshi also offer legal access for American traders.

The study reports faster growth at regulated venues than offshore. Regulated volume rose 866% from 2024 to 2025, while offshore volume rose 179% over the same period. Kalshi’s monthly volume climbed to about $14.81 billion by April 2026, and Polymarket’s monthly volume rose to about $9.01 billion.

Analysts expect the sector to expand. Bernstein projected in April 2026 that total prediction market volume could approach $1 trillion by 2030, implying an 80% compound annual growth rate, and forecast industry revenue to rise from about $0.4 billion in 2025 to $10.8 billion in 2030. The Crane & Zeng report cautions that tighter rules on regulated U.S. platforms could shift trading to offshore venues. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is developing a regulatory framework while Congress considers possible limits on U.S. participation.