Trump: Stock Rally Prompted Backing of Iran Ceasefire

At a G7 conference in France hours after the weekend ceasefire, President Trump linked his decision to support an Iran agreement to gains in the U.S. stock market. He described equity moves as a live indicator of progress in talks and said the rally justified opting for negotiations over more military strikes.

Trump called the market “more brilliant than anybody” and described it as a “real-time scorecard” for his Middle East policy. “The stock market is quite brilliant. Every time we said something amazing like we are going to settle, it would go up. Every time we said something negative … it would go down very big,” he added.

Trump pointed to recent record closes as evidence of the market reaction. On June 15 the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,554.29, up 1.65% that day. The Dow gained about 468.77 points to near 51,671, and the Nasdaq rose roughly 3.07%.

He also cited a roughly 20% decline in oil from its 2026 peak as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz appeared likely to resume, a change he said would reduce inflation pressures tied to the conflict.

During the remarks he noted he had expected a larger market drop during the strikes on Iran, saying, “I thought the stock market would go down 25% or 30%.” He contrasted his approach with past presidents and referenced economic policy choices he said he wanted to avoid repeating.

Trump predicted further gains as energy costs fall and maritime traffic through Hormuz increases, saying, “Trillions of dollars will be made by the world, and the stock market will … continue to rise.”

Cryptocurrencies tracked equities. Bitcoin traded near $64,200 after slipping more than 2% in a day; it had risen above $67,000 on the ceasefire headlines before retreating. Analysts note Bitcoin continues to behave like a high-beta asset tied to equity risk appetite and to shifts in Federal Reserve rate expectations.

Trump has previously pointed to major stock indexes as a public measure of his administration’s performance. At the G7 conference he used recent market moves to explain his choice of diplomacy over additional strikes and framed those moves as confirmation that negotiations were working.