Standard Chartered: BTC low $59K; Galaxy sees $40K–$46K

Standard Chartered’s global head of digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, wrote in a client note that Bitcoin’s slide to $59,000 in June marked the cycle low. That level is about 53% below October’s $126,000 peak. Kendrick pointed to two short-term factors tied to the June change: the cancellation of planned strikes on Iran and a large equity listing that prompted some investors to sell Bitcoin ETF shares to raise cash. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $4.3 billion in outflows across 13 consecutive sessions during that period.

Galaxy Research reached a different conclusion in a data-focused cycle study released this week. The firm’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, wrote that the four-year Bitcoin cycle appears to be compressing, which affects the timing and depth of the bottom. Galaxy’s analysis finds only four of 13 historical signals that marked prior bottoms have triggered so far, and the current decline of about 51% is smaller than the 77%–85% drops that ended earlier cycles. Using past timing-bottoms arriving roughly 12 to 13 months after cycle tops-Galaxy’s base case places a floor between $40,000 and $46,000 by late 2026.

Both teams reject a repeat of the roughly 80% collapses that ended earlier cycles. Galaxy’s report shows bear markets have grown shallower across recent cycles and attributes a higher present-day floor to a larger aggregate cost basis among holders. The firm estimates the cost basis now sits near 43.7% of the prior peak, compared with about a third in earlier cycles. Galaxy cites increased institutional participation through spot ETFs and corporate treasury holdings as factors that have raised that cost basis.

Kendrick’s $59,000 call sits above his February note, in which he had framed a capitulation near $50,000 as a buy for a $100,000 year-end target. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin traded near $63,854. Galaxy warned its projected floor could still fall if a genuine panic emerges; the report reads, “A calmer top has raised the floor, but it has not removed it.”

Standard Chartered identified a set of near-term indicators it will watch to test whether the June low holds: renewed ETF inflows, easing oil prices and confirmation that a recent 32-BTC sale by a large holder was an isolated event. Galaxy’s timeline ties the drawn-out process to halvings and longer-term supply dynamics.

Both teams noted the network’s scheduled halvings, which cut new supply about every four years, have historically shaped multi-year peaks and troughs. They also cited growing institutional adoption via spot ETFs and corporate balance sheets as a factor changing how deep past sell-offs can run.