SpaceX IPO Prices at $135, Valuation Near $1.8T Divides Investors

SpaceX priced its initial public offering at $135 a share, valuing the company at roughly $1.77 to $1.8 trillion and reflecting about 13 billion shares outstanding. The offering would place SpaceX immediately among the largest U.S. public companies by market capitalization.

The valuation is large relative to the company’s reported revenue of about $18.7 billion last year and its current lack of profit. At the $1.8 trillion level, SpaceX would trade at an implied price-to-sales ratio near 96 based on those revenue figures.

Estimates of fundamental value vary widely. One prominent projection places SpaceX closer to $780 billion, illustrating a wide spread of views among market participants.

Prediction-market activity shows a small probability of an extreme first-day outcome. A near 1% chance has been assigned to a closing market cap above $4 trillion, which would require a share price above $300. A larger cluster of bets assigns roughly a 38% probability to a closing market cap above $2.4 trillion, which corresponds to a share price near $185. At the low end, models assign a small probability that the stock could close below $1 trillion, or around $76 per share.

Demand for the offering has been strong and reportedly oversubscribed. Retail investors are likely to receive limited allocations through standard brokerage channels. Some market participants are exploring tokenized or synthetic routes in secondary markets as alternative ways to gain exposure.

Structural listing rules may affect early trading. Revised Nasdaq fast-entry procedures could allow SpaceX to join the Nasdaq-100 in about 15 trading days; qualification for Russell indexes could occur within five trading sessions, and S&P inclusion rules might be waived. Inclusion in major indexes would require passive exchange-traded funds that track those benchmarks to purchase large quantities of the stock in a short period, creating mechanical buying pressure. Concentration of newly issued shares in passive funds also raises the prospect of pronounced price moves if large shareholders sell after lockup periods end.

One price projection charts a period of consolidation after the IPO followed by renewed upward momentum later in 2026. The projection shows average monthly prices of about $123 in June, $119 in July, and $119 in August, rising to $142 in September, $182 in October, $197 in November and $200 in December. Early 2027 averages in the projection lie in the $200 to $208 range, with March averaging about $208. Under that scenario, prices would rise roughly 60% to 66% from the IPO price by early 2027 rather than doubling on day one.

Market participants cite several risks tied to the offering: the high valuation relative to current sales, the absence of profitability, concentration of float among passive funds, and the potential for price pressure once lockup expirations and earnings updates occur. Historical large listings have at times experienced significant price declines within months of debut when initial demand subsided.