CLARITY Act odds drop to 47% as White House meets law enforcement

Polymarket traders put the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act’s chance of becoming law in 2026 at 47% as administration officials host a meeting with federal law enforcement at the White House to discuss ethics and illicit-finance objections to developer protections in the bill.

The Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act on May 14 in a 15-9 vote, with two Democrats joining Republicans. The measure still requires 60 votes to clear the full Senate and reach a final vote.

Prediction markets and analysts have reduced their odds in recent weeks. Polymarket’s price fell from about 74% a month ago to 47% now. Galaxy Research chief Alex Thorn lowered his personal 2026 passage estimate to 60% from 75% on June 5, citing a tightening Senate calendar and a narrowing legislative window before the August recess.

Administration officials called the White House meeting to address objections tied to developer liability protections drawn from the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. The protections aim to limit legal exposure for software developers when code they create is later used for illicit activity. Law enforcement officials and some lawmakers say the language could hinder efforts to detect and prosecute money laundering and other illicit finance.

Ethics language linked to enforcement and oversight remains unresolved and is a separate point of dispute for several senators. Some Democrats have said they will not support bringing the bill to the floor until law enforcement concerns and the ethics provisions are settled. Senator Angela Alsobrooks has explicitly declined to back a floor vote until negotiators finalize those provisions.

Crypto industry groups have pressed Senate leaders for a quick floor vote. More than 200 companies and trade organizations sent a June 7 letter urging leaders to schedule consideration. Signatories included the Blockchain Association, Stand With Crypto, the Crypto Council for Innovation and the Digital Chamber.

Senator Cynthia Lummis reinforced industry pressure on social media, writing: “I did not spend years on this issue to watch another country write the rules that govern the assets Americans invented. Let’s pass the Clarity Act.”

Negotiators must resolve the technical legal language and secure enough crossover votes before senators leave for the summer recess. If law enforcement accepts changes from the White House talks, negotiators could move to schedule the bill for a Senate floor vote. If concerns remain unresolved, the bill may lack the bipartisan support needed to reach 60 votes for cloture, extending uncertainty over the federal regulatory framework for digital assets.