Oil Drops Under $80; Bank Sees Bitcoin Breakout Ahead

West Texas Intermediate crude fell below $80 a barrel on Tuesday, the first time under that level in nearly four months. WTI traded around $78, down more than 4% for the day after earlier spikes above $100 during heightened tensions with Iran. The decline followed growing optimism about a US‑Iran framework that eased global supply concerns and shifted investor interest toward risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Traders priced in a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf chokepoint that handles about 20% of the world’s traded petroleum. A framework agreement could allow Iranian exports to resume and relieve the supply squeeze. Lower energy costs reduce inflation pressure and may give the Federal Reserve more room to cut rates, a backdrop that tends to support risk assets.

Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, wrote that three signals he had wanted to see before turning more bullish on Bitcoin have appeared. He cited MicroStrategy’s purchase of 1,587 BTC for about $100 million last week; US spot Bitcoin ETFs drawing $85.85 million on Friday, their strongest day in a month even as the funds finished the week with net redemptions; and oil’s continued decline. “All three confirmatory signals I had mentioned below as wanting to see have worked…,” Kendrick wrote.

Kendrick identified a move above the roughly $83,000 region from early May as the next test for Bitcoin to rotate into a sustained uptrend and set a year‑end target of $100,000. Bitcoin traded near $66,650 on Tuesday. The token remains well below an October record near $126,000 and dropped below $100,000 during the Iran standoff when Tehran threatened the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts say the outlook for both oil and Bitcoin depends on whether a US‑Iran framework is signed cleanly and whether Iranian exports can resume without further disruption. If Iranian barrels return to the market, immediate pressure on supply would ease and energy prices could stay lower for longer.

Market participants are watching oil price action, ETF flows into Bitcoin and large corporate purchases. The slide in WTI below $80 and the developments highlighted by Standard Chartered have drawn renewed attention to Bitcoin’s near‑term outlook amid ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.