Clarity Act Odds Rise After Stablecoin Yield Deal

Senators reached a deal Friday to bar stablecoin payments that are “economically or functionally equivalent” to interest on bank deposits, and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong signaled support for moving the bill forward. Market platforms priced the probability the Clarity Act passes in 2026 higher, rising from about 46% to 64%.

The draft text would prohibit interest or yield on stablecoins that mirror returns from interest-bearing bank deposits. It would still permit “rewards or incentives” tied to specific, bona fide activities such as transactions, payments, transfers, remittances and providing liquidity. The bill gives U.S. regulators one year to issue rules defining when a reward becomes equivalent to interest.

The measure aims to resolve questions left by last year’s stablecoin law, which banned issuers from paying yield but left unclear whether third-party crypto firms, like exchanges, could offer interest-like payments. Banks pushed lawmakers to narrow that gap, arguing higher stablecoin yields could draw deposits away from traditional accounts.

Coinbase’s support is notable after Armstrong withdrew backing in January, halting a scheduled Senate Banking Committee markup. Armstrong wrote “Mark it up,” a message widely interpreted as approval for the committee to resume the process.

Responses within the crypto industry were varied. Investor Nic Carter wrote, “The banks won.” Van Buren Capital general counsel Scott Johnsson posted, “This is fine. It may not feel like it, but it is.” Blockchain Association CEO Summer Mersinger described the agreement as clearing the path to a committee markup and urged lawmakers to advance market-structure legislation without delay.

Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott said the panel is “nearing consensus” and working toward a bipartisan markup in May to advance digital asset market structure. A markup could occur as soon as this month, but the Senate text must be reconciled with a House-passed version before a final bill can reach the president. With the 2026 election calendar approaching, lawmakers face a tighter window to resolve differences. Regulators will play a central role after enactment: the one-year deadline for guidance means industry participants will watch how officials define permitted rewards and what counts as payments equivalent to bank interest.