Bitcoin down 50% in four-year cycle as ETFs, IPOs drain liquidity

BloFin Research reports Bitcoin is down about 50% from its October 2025 peak and that the move follows the cryptocurrency’s established four‑year cycle. The firm identifies spot ETF outflows, a corporate bitcoin sale, and a cluster of large IPOs as the main liquidity factors linked to the decline and projects a cycle low window in the fourth quarter of 2026.

The firm outlines the four‑year pattern by peak and trough dates. Peaks arrived in late 2013, late 2017, late 2021 and October 2025. Prior troughs occurred about 12 months after each peak — January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022. BloFin attributes the repeating timing to scheduled supply reductions from halvings combined with demand dynamics that build and later unwind.

BloFin reports that spot Bitcoin ETFs, approved in January 2024, moved to net redemptions in May 2026. May outflows were roughly ten times the $206 million redeemed in February 2026, the firm says. Separately, a company referred to as Strategy sold 32 bitcoin between May 26 and May 31, its first net disposal in four years. BloFin describes the 32‑coin sale, worth about $2.5 million at the time, as small by value but meaningful in showing a large corporate holder can act as allocation capital instead of a permanent holder.

The research identifies SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic as the largest upcoming equity events. BloFin says the three companies are expected to raise more than $240 billion combined from June through year‑end 2026. SpaceX’s roadshow opens June 4, pricing is set for June 11 and first Nasdaq trading is scheduled for June 12. The company targets about $75 billion in proceeds at an approximate $1.75 trillion valuation and has reserved roughly $22 billion for retail investors, according to BloFin.

BloFin lays out a two‑stage liquidity sequence tied to the IPO calendar. The first stage is upfront absorption of public‑market capital by the IPOs, which the firm says compresses ETF inflows and reduces demand for higher‑beta assets such as Bitcoin. The second stage begins when lock‑up expirations release insider liquidity: SpaceX’s phased lock‑up schedule starts releasing shares through the second half of 2026, with broader releases around the 180‑day mark in December. BloFin notes OpenAI and Anthropic have comparable timelines that could extend reallocation into 2027.

The firm compares the current price path with prior cycles, saying the pattern — a sharp post‑peak selloff, months of consolidation, a spring rally that tested the 200‑day moving average and a subsequent rejection — resembles the 2018 and 2022 sequences. Final declines in prior cycles were about 85%, 84% and 77%; the current drawdown at roughly 50% is smaller by magnitude. BloFin cautions the four‑year framework forecasts timing rather than price and observes that ETF flow reversals and corporate sales indicate institutional bids introduced after ETF approval can act as allocation capital rather than permanent buyers.